Trade school enrollment is booming. It's mostly a demographic mirage

Trade school enrollment only jumped because Gen Z got old enough to attend. Apprenticeship programs still can't absorb demand for electricians

Nitat Termmee / Getty Images

Gen Z suddenly seems interested in the skilled trades. Maybe this generation is taking up courses because of all the demand for electricians and plumbers. Or maybe college costs too much and the payoff feels far too uncertain. Regardless of the reason, trade school enrollment among this generation is up 1,421%.

If the data point from higher education research firm Validated Insights doesn't feel real, it's because it's indeed misleading. Eight years ago, almost no one in Gen Z — those born between 1997 and 2012 — was old enough to enroll in anything. The percentage is huge because the starting point was almost zero. A generation aging into eligibility will produce that kind of gain regardless of any broader workforce trend.

Even though more people are searching for trade schools and applying for apprenticeships, most of them aren't converting into students or apprentices. The trades expanding fastest are culinary arts and health care, not the electrical and construction programs powering the data center buildout.

A flatter enrollment picture across every age group

The 1,421% figure is an........

© Quartz