Falling gas demand and a surge in batteries and electrification have delayed forecast supply shortfalls – but only for now.

The 2026 Gas Statement of Opportunities (GSOO) – the Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) annual summary of gas supply and demand, published Thursday – says increased supply capability and moderating demand has strengthened short-term gas adequacy, delaying any major gaps in supply to 2030.

“The 2026 GSOO highlights a peak day shortfall risk in the southern states in 2029 under sustained high gas usage conditions, and a structural gap from 2030 under most weather conditions with new gas supply required to address the projected annual supply shortfall.”

“The forecast shortfalls could impact any of the southern states, including Victoria.”

In the meantime, the report says, total gas consumption is forecast to decline as businesses join the rush of households choosing to electrify appliances and operations and reduce their reliance on reticulated gas supplies.

In this regard, the trend of declining gas consumption in the 2026 GSOO is steeper than what was projected in 2025, AEMO says, as electrification of the industrial sector is projected to gather pace as a preferred pathway to emissions reduction relative to alternatives.

In the National........

© Pearls and Irritations