The closure of the Strait of Hormuz revealed agriculture’s vulnerability when fertiliser supply chains are disrupted. We need to build resilience before the next shock.

The recent memorandum of understanding between the United States and Iran promises to restore the flow of oil, natural gas, sulfur and fertilisers through the Strait of Hormuz, easing pressure on agricultural markets and reducing the risk of a deeper global food security crisis. Yet while the MOU may reduce the intensity of the shock (assuming the Strait remains open), it cannot erase the central lesson of the past four months: agriculture remains dangerously vulnerable to disruptions in fertiliser supply chains.

Given deep uncertainty over the MOU itself, not to mention long-term relations with Iran more broadly, countries should use whatever easing of immediate pressures occurs to strengthen resilience before the next shock arrives. The question is not whether another disruption will occur, but whether we will be better prepared when it does.

Over the past five years, agriculture has absorbed a succession of crises, from the COVID-19 pandemic to wars and repeated climate-related disasters. Each exposed weaknesses in supply chains, energy systems and agricultural production. Few, however, offered such a clear opportunity to address those vulnerabilities before the next crisis emerged.

Perhaps the most unsettling lesson from the closure of the Strait of Hormuz is the gap between what we knew and how we prepared. The risks associated with fertiliser disruptions were well understood, yet the global agriculture sector entered the crisis with limited safeguards and no coordinated international reserve mechanism for critical........

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