A fifth interest rate rise and the mortgage pain that goes with it, just days before early voting opens in Victoria, may show what happens to incumbents when voters blame them for decisions they did not make.

On 28 November Victoria may provide a preview of the first electoral verdict on the inflation dragon. The Reserve Bank lifted the cash rate again on this week, the fifth increase this year and the highest in an exceptionally long time. This is the first general election in the country to be fought with all five rate rises mixed in with all the other campaign narratives and issues being managed by the major parties.

On a $600,000 variable loan this rise adds approximately $92 a month to a household’s bill. When we stack the four before it, that household is paying roughly $450 a month more than it was in January, close to $5,500 a year.

The households that will feel this latest rate hike the most are not evenly spread across the state. They are concentrated in Melbourne’s growth corridors: in local government areas like Wyndham, Melton, Hume, Whittlesea, Casey and even Cardinia. These are the municipalities with the highest share of mortgaged households in Victoria, and some of the highest in the country. The sort of suburbs that have delivered the Victorian Labor government its victories since 2014. The best analogy that can be used? They are the foundation of Labor’s electoral success, the concrete slab holding all campaign strategies Labor has implemented for decades.

The timing could hardly be worse - the new loan repayment will land through the second half of November, right as early voting opens. A large share of Victorians will cast their ballot in the same fortnight their mortgage goes up.

Nothing in Tuesday’s decision was decided by the Victorian Labor government, or any other state government. The RBA’s statement pointed to........

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