The build-up of deterrence, alliances and enemy thinking helped drive the catastrophe of 1914, and today’s great-power rivalry risks repeating the same dangerous cycle.

On 4 August 112 years ago, stupid decisions by the leaders of great powers at the time, Britain, Germany, France, Austria-Hungary and Russia, resulted in a catastrophic war that caused the deaths of millions and economic damage and dislocation that resonated for decades.

We are in a hauntingly similar situation today and we should strive to learn from the history so there is no repeat.

Today, national leaders talk about “national security” and “the increasingly challenging security environment”. They acknowledge that the primary aim of a government is to maintain the security of its people. Surely that aim is best achieved by avoiding war.

Yet avoidance of war has been turned on its head. The military-industrial complex which benefits most financially, constantly argues that the best way to avoid war is to build up deterrence. But the deterrence build-up by any nation is always seen as a threat by other nations.

Iran is a case in point. Its case for obtaining nuclear weapons is deterrence. Immediately, the US and Israel have labelled that a threat which has to be eliminated. In short, the very thing designed to prevent war – deterrence – becomes a catalyst for war – the elimination of threat.

The mistake made by the great powers in the early years of the 20th century was to build up deterrence. They did this not only through weaponry and naval forces, but also through alliances.

France thought an alliance with Russia would deter Germany from attacking it. Germany, of course, saw that alliance as a threat, for which it had to........

© Pearls and Irritations