The Abraham Accords were once hailed as a groundbreaking diplomatic breakthrough and a potential game-changer in Middle East politics. The agreements signed in 2020 between Israel and its signatories, the UAE, Bahrain, followed by Morocco and Sudan, were more than normalization pacts. These expressed a more general shift toward a new strategy driven by a preference for economic modernization, technological cooperation, and security ties instead of the old ideological divisions among the Arab states. The regional polarization, however, stemming from the Gaza war, has brought up a basic question: Will the Abraham Accords last through the current political and social challenges in the Middle East? Yes, but not as first thought. The Accords will not be broken as the strategic interest remains intact. However, the current regional crisis has emphasized the shortcomings of a process of normalization, which is largely public opinion and Palestinian issue agnostic, and primarily state-driven.

The Strategic Rationale Of The Abraham Accords

Peace idealism was not really the main driver behind the initiation of the Abraham Accords; it was geopolitical pragmatism. Gulf states in particular, the UAE and Bahrain, saw normalization with Israel as a component of a wider security and economic plan. These states were attracted to Israel due to Iran’s regional influence, uncertainties about U.S. long-term security guarantees, and a need for technological and economic diversification. Israel, on the other hand, wanted to legitimize itself in the region and wanted to integrate economically, without resorting to the morass of the Palestinian peace process.

Many of the agreements were emblematic of the emergence of a new political logic for the Middle East. Newer doctrines of economic statecraft, strategic hedging, and regional connectivity started to supplant the old ones. Following 2020, the volume of trade between Israel and the UAE increased at a fast pace, with bilateral trade reaching hundreds of millions of dollars and even billions in just a few years. In the field of cooperation, there was a focus on cybersecurity, renewable energy, tourism, artificial........

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