The United States has been the primary security actor in the Middle East for more than three decades. With the help of its extensive alliance network, forward deployment of troops, intelligence sharing, and diplomatic intervention, the U.S. has played an influential part in molding the security architecture of the Middle Eastern countries. The U.S. administrations have always seen themselves as key intermediaries in times of crises in the Middle East – from negotiating peace treaties to deterring inter-state wars. However, the rise of China on the global stage makes one wonder whether China can take up that mantle in place of the U.S.

This debate intensified after China facilitated the restoration of diplomatic relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran in March 2023, a deal that is considered one of the most important diplomatic successes for Beijing in the Middle East. This agreement showed that China could effectively facilitate dialogue between opposing parties and help in de-escalating the situation, leading to numerous opinions that Beijing is slowly moving from being a mere economic player into a real diplomat. Some experts have even argued that this deal indicated that China could eventually pose a challenge to the US’s diplomatic superiority in the region.

In the case of the conflict between Iran and Israel (2024-2026), however, the test was far greater. While the reconciliation between Saudi Arabia and Iran resulted from years of negotiations involving the Iraqis and Omanis, the conflict between Iran and Israel included confrontations through wars, nuclear issues, humanitarian issues, and the interests of different outside powers. Crisis management here required more than just mediation; it needed the ability to shape military behavior, coordinate an international response, and assure regional allies. It was thus the first real test of the ability of China’s rising diplomatic power to mediate in a crisis situation.

China already had some strategic interests in the region when entering this era. According to the latest trade statistics, China has turned out to be the top trading partner of the Arab world, with trade worth US$400 billion in 2024. At the same time, the Middle East continues to supply more than half of China’s imported crude oil. This has made regional stability vital to Beijing’s energy security and future economic development. The economic imperatives have prompted China to maintain positive relations with Iran, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Egypt, Qatar, and Israel at the same time, providing Beijing with an unusually wide-ranging diplomatic portfolio in the region.

However, despite these emerging interests, economic influence does not automatically translate into diplomatic leadership. Efficient crisis management entails political credibility, experience with international institutions, strategic leverage, and often the capability to provide credible security guarantees. In the past, the United States has played all these roles through its military deployments, alliances, and wide regional network of partnerships. China has always placed its bets on non-interference, political diplomacy, and state sovereignty. Whether or not this alternative approach is adequate for managing complicated regional crises remains uncertain.

The present paper argues that the Iran-Israel conflict has highlighted both strengths and weaknesses of Chinese diplomacy in the Middle East. China demonstrated the ability to mediate between all key regional players, call for ceasefires, and engage in diplomatic negotiations using international organizations. At the same time, the conflict brought into light the structural limits of Chinese involvement. Beijing lacked the military deployment, networks of alliances, and coercive leverage, as well as mechanisms for managing the conflict. Thus, although China proved to be a more prominent diplomatic player in the region, there is reason to believe that it only complements the United States as the primary crisis mediator in the Middle East.

China’s Expanding Strategic Interests in the Middle East

The relations between China and the Middle East have changed drastically during the past two decades. While initially characterized by energy imports and business deals, the Chinese presence in the region now extends to include the building of infrastructure, digital networks, political conversations, defense collaboration, and diplomacy. Nowadays, the Middle East plays a more prominent role in the Chinese vision for international connectivity and power.

Energy security continues to be the foundation of China’s policy in the region. China has emerged as the biggest importer of oil in the world owing to industrialization and economic development, which would not have been possible without the Gulf countries. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), along with several other policy research institutions, about half of China’s imported oil comes from the Middle East region, thus making uninterrupted access to it via the Persian Gulf and Strait of Hormuz critical, not just economically.

In addition to that, economic ties have improved China’s standing in the region even more. Starting from the year 2013 and the implementation of the Belt and Road Initiative, China has been spending billions of dollars on the development of ports, industrial complexes, renewable energy, logistics, telecommunication systems, and transport infrastructure across the Middle East. All of these steps increased economic interdependency and........

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