Burning oil infrastructure, disrupted shipping routes, and a sharp fall in maritime flows are only the first visible signs of the current US-Israel-Iran conflict. The next effects may be felt far from the Gulf, in the form of higher prices for wheat flour, edible oil, and fertilizers. For agrarian economies like Pakistan,  Hormuz can no longer be seen only as an oil chokepoint. It must now be understood as a food-security risk. 

According to UNCTAD’s March 2026 assessment, the Strait of Hormuz carries around a quarter of global seaborne oil trade and substantial volumes of liquefied natural gas (LNG) and fertilizers. Its data show that,  in 2024, about 84% of crude oil and 83% of LNG transported through the Strait went to Asian markets, while one-third of global seaborne fertilizer trade passed through this corridor. 

In early March 2026, daily ship transits through Hormuz dropped by 97% from the pre-conflict average.  This matters because modern food systems run on energy and fertilizer before they run on grain. Beyond energy, the Gulf is central to the global fertilizer industry: UNCTAD notes that countries in the region account for 13% of global nitrogen exports and 9 percent of phosphate-fertilizer nutrient exports. Hence,  the drivers of food security are being compromised by the ongoing conflict. 

FAO’s Chief Economist cautioned that if the conflict stretches beyond 40 days while input costs remain high, farmers may be forced to use fewer inputs, plant less, or shift to less fertilizer-intensive crops. The FAO Food Price Index averaged 128.5 points in March 2026, up 2.4% from February, while international wheat prices rose 4.3%, partly on expectations of reduced plantings linked to........

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