Trump’s latest sanctions against Cuba, which prevent oil shipments from any country to the island, constitute a genuine blockade rather than a porous embargo, as was mostly the case before. They are paralyzing an already struggling economy and affecting the social services that rely on it, leading to a humanitarian crisis. Over the past 67 years, the Cuban regime has shown a strong ability to turn challenges—from the Bay of Pigs invasion to the massive popular protests in July 2021—into opportunities to strengthen totalitarian control. However, this time seems different. The situation seems stable for now, but the end of Venezuela’s lifeline economic support and the blockade may succeed where the embargo failed for decades. It is certainly bittersweet for many Cuban democrats that an illegal action by a callous U.S. President might provide the necessary, if insufficient, condition for the liberation of the Cuban nation.

Restoring Popular Sovereignty

The former Polish dissident, president and Nobel Peace Prize laureate, Lech Walesa, was in Miami, where he publicly stated that Cubans should “take advantage” of President Donald Trump’s pressure. He also warned that the U.S. president “will not bring them freedom.” Point taken: Freedom and democracy are rarely transplanted from abroad, especially if that is not the goal to begin with. Only the Cuban nation, which includes the exiles, can do that. What are the chances of this happening? It is hard to predict, but one can clearly see some major difficulties in restoring popular sovereignty in Cuba.

To start with, giving Cubans their voices back, after so many decades of dictatorship–including almost seven years under military strongman Fulgencio Batista (1952-58) – will pose some governance challenges. There are many democrats on the island, and a few persecuted pro-human rights organizations and independent media platforms. But one finds no prevailing national pro-democracy opposition comparable to Poland’s Solidarity Movement in the 1980s, or the Venezuelan opposition. Democratic opposition groups abroad, including in Canada, have a unity of purpose. But........

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