Freedom floats over Iran, but how will it rise?
None of us could have imagined living through such a historic time, when you can almost touch freedom for so many Iranians — and not just Iranians.
Many are asking whether millions of people who have clung to the Woman, Life, Freedom movement, and to liberation more broadly, will return to Persia’s streets and face the brutal Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and Basij. And how?
The larger question is: How will freedom materialize?
As America looks back on 250 years of its own history, the fight for freedom has been written in blood — from Civil War to Black Americans’ civil rights struggle, and from women’s battles for equality to the defense of modern democracy.
Few people living in the United States can relate to Israelis sleeping in bunkers as part of a nightly ritual, with a toll that will forever be ingrained in memory, especially for young children.
Nor can they envision life for the average Iranian under oppression by the Islamic regime: limited rights, women threatened with punishment if they are not covered, imprisonment, and even death.
The quieter Gulf countries are stunned, running for safety as Iranian missiles targeted their nations, striking U.S. bases, hospitals, an oil refinery in Bahrain, and a five-star hotel in the United Arab Emirates. Shattering a false sense of security, nearly 200 missiles and 1,000 drones were launched at one of the most visited regions in the Arab world.
That is one reason President Trump, along with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, has spent months planning a battle for freedom in the Middle East.
Freedom will also be tested by whether the Yemeni people, who were hijacked by the Houthis, are freed from the shackles of that Iranian proxy.
The ultimate test will be who takes down the million-person military force made up of the IRGC, the Basij, and other militia groups.
The Kurds are ambivalent about joining and view their role as that of a bridge.
Another pattern to watch is that of defectors from the IRGC. The Media Line spoke to an Iranian military officer who said, “It’s inevitable the IRGC will fall.” He securely shared that the bombardment of the key IRGC centers has weakened them. Along with fatigue, he sees defections increasing.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi told NBC News that they are waiting for a ground invasion. Iran is counting on its military forces and hidden tunnel cities. It still holds short- to medium-range missiles, but the joint American-Israeli operations have destroyed 86% of Iran’s missile arsenal.
The Free World must act until the more than 90 million Iranians are set free, Yemen’s duly elected government returns, the Houthis are halted, Hezbollah is hunted, and Hamas is de-weaponized.
Yet a war that leaves the Iranian people exposed will lead to a bloodbath and the possibility of a leader even worse than the ayatollah himself. As the Iranian regime decentralizes military power and hides it in hospitals, Hamas-style, it is counting on those strategic assets to preserve the regime and attack the people.
Inside Iran, people are being told to fight back, and many will. They are unarmed and must receive the support of freedom’s guarantors through assistance from defecting IRGC personnel and outside troops willing to join the effort.
What we are witnessing is a historic moment of monumental courage, one that can only emerge from a position of relative advantage. It must come together as freedom draws near.
Friedson is president and CEO of The Media Line news agency and founder of the Press and Policy Student Program, the Mideast Press Club, and the Women’s Empowerment Program.
