After five years of diplomatic frost following the 2020 Galwan clash, Beijing and New Delhi appear to be inching cautiously towards a limited normalisation of economic ties. China’s decision to allow Indian nationals to apply for visas online from December 22, coupled with the resumption of direct flights in October, is being projected as a confidence-building measure aimed at tapping India’s booming outbound travel market. But while the move has immediate economic logic, India would do well to approach this overture with realism rather than romanticism.

On the surface, China’s move makes commercial sense. India’s outbound travel market, valued at US$21.6 billion last year and projected to nearly triple by 2033, represents a lucrative opportunity at a time when China’s own services sector is struggling to regain pre-pandemic momentum. Before relations soured, Indian tourism to China was growing at a healthy pace, with 142,000 visitors in 2019 alone. Beijing wants that flow back, and fast.

The easing of visa procedures, though not a full visa-free........

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