Opinion | India And Canada Reset Ties Even As Suspicions Linger

Khalistan’s the killer frost. India’s red lines are etched: no compromise on sovereignty

After a deep freeze, a beautiful Canadian spring is thawing the ice between India and Canada. PM Modi’s meeting in New Delhi with PM Carney saw some significant agreements being unveiled, signalling renewal.

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Canada’s relations with India endured a polar winter, triggered in 2023 by mutual accusations of interference and assassinations tied to Khalistani terrorists. Now, some crocuses of cooperation poke through the spring thaw. A landmark 10-year, $2.6 billion deal secures Canadian uranium for India’s reactors, alongside pacts on critical minerals, and 24 university partnerships in AI, healthcare, and agriculture are of note.

An ambitious $50 billion annual trade goal by 2030 has been conveyed by India, while PM Carney eyed $70 billion via a free trade deal that could be wrapped up as early as by year-end. Both seek buffers against America’s tariff storms, with Canada literally under the pump by President Trump.

These deals revive a partnership once chilled to sub-zero. Bilateral goods trade hit $7.65 billion in 2023 (India exporting $4.7 billion and importing $2.95 billion) but has since climbed towards $13 billion amid tentative post-Trudeau gestures.

Canadian pension funds, eyeing India’s boom, have poured over $75 billion and are looking to increase this to $100 billion into its markets by 2028.

Nuclear Spring’s Warm Glow

Uranium crowns the reset. Canada, with vast reserves, will fuel India’s pressurised heavy-water reactors (PHWRs), vital for its 22.5 gigawatt nuclear fleet aiming for 100 GW by 2047. Natural uranium powers these indigenous workhorses. Canada’s supply ensures stability amid global fuel squeezes. Media reports suggest collaboration in small modular reactors, promising scalable clean power for India’s energy-hungry grid.

History adds poignancy. In the 1950s-60s, Canada birthed India’s nuclear ambitions via the CIRUS reactor and CANDU tech under the Colombo Plan. Post fuelling the peaceful 1974 “Smiling Buddha" nuclear test, Canada was the first to slap sanctions, yanked support, and scorned India’s “peaceful explosion" claim. Half a century on, irony abounds: Ottawa now profitably partners with a thermonuclear power it once demonised, selling ore to the same programme.

Economic Petals Unfurling

Critical minerals steal the show beyond uranium. Canada’s deposits of lithium, nickel, and rare earths complement India’s emerging processing prowess, forging resilient supply chains for batteries and tech. Space, defence, and education MoUs trail: joint satellite ventures and officer exchanges hint at strategic alignment, though secondary to commerce. Cooperation in the space sector is something that is new between the two countries and of great priority after this Carney visit.

The India-Canada free trade agreement looms largest. Years in gestation, its terms of reference were inked, targeting closure by December 2026. Modi’s $50 billion vision matches India’s export muscle in pharma, gems, and IT; Canada offers agri-food, machinery, and clean tech. Pension inflows—CPP Investments alone tripled to $22 billion in five years—signal investor faith in India’s 7% growth.

Both eye partial US decoupling. Trump’s tariffs batter Canada’s lumber and autos; India frets over steel duties. An FTA diversifies paths.

Khalistan’s Lingering Frost

No thaw ignores ice patches. India insists Khalistan is a core security issue. Carney echoed this crucial consensus. Delhi demands Canada sustain its post-2023 pivot: curbing separatist parades, probing Nijjar’s killing without scapegoating agents, and enforcing laws on its soil.

Ottawa’s rhetoric has toughened—no tolerance for “transnational repression" or crime—but pro-Khalistan voices persist in Surrey and Brampton. India won’t yield its muscular anti-terror stance; failure here could refreeze ties, as Trudeau learnt. Both countries need to trim this hedge carefully.

Historical Winters, Boreal Roots

Context deepens the thaw. Pre-2023, ties flowered: Mulroney’s 1980s deals, Chrétien’s tech swaps. Khalistan simmered since the 1980s Air India bombing, but Trudeau’s allegations and support for break-up India campaigns froze summits and expelled diplomats. Carney, sworn in March 2025 after the Liberals’ pivot, inherits a cleanup. He needs to stick to that job.

India’s diaspora—1.6 million strong, affluent professionals—fuels people-to-people bonds; those that harbour separatist sympathies need to be legally dealt with.

Geopolitical Blossoms

Broader winds aid renewal. Russia-Ukraine strains Canada’s energy; India’s multipolarity offers room for diplomatic growth.

Trump’s return amplifies urgency. Canada, with 75% US-bound exports, seeks Asian hedges; India diversifies from China+1 dreams.

Risks lurk. Domestic politics: Carney faces Khalistani lobbies; Modi a security nightmare from Khalistani networks 10,000 miles away.

Trade hurdles—India’s subsidies, Canada’s IP—could snag the FTA. Uranium needs NSG waivers?

Khalistan’s the killer frost. India’s red lines are etched: no compromise on sovereignty. Canada’s “robust safeguards" must yield arrests; it must share intelligence and stop terror plots, not just optics. Without it, the spring reverts to sleet.

Bountiful Harvest Ahead?

This Delhi dalliance plants hardy perennials. From $8 billion trade to $50 billion; uranium foes to partners; Khalistan friction to managed coexistence. Canada’s spring gifts India fuel, and India in turn offers Canada a large growth market amid Trump gales. This sets the course for a long runway.

Yet springs yield to summers only with care. Prune Khalistani weeds, nurture economic vines, and this boreal-Indian garden flourishes. History, once a sanction scar, now looks to a profitable future. The thaw is not yet complete, but buds swell promisingly.

The writer is a senior journalist with expertise in defence. Views expressed are personal and do not necessarily reflect those of News18.

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