Opinion | Middle East War: India Has Chosen A Side And There’s No Prizes For Guessing

India’s only option is securing its energy security and ensuring our diaspora is not dislocated or disturbed from this region

No betting man can predict what will next happen in the Middle East. The vagaries of war and the mood swings of the US President are both unpredictable. What cannot be disputed, however, is that even if the war grinds to a stop, it won’t be back to business as usual anytime soon. The rupture in the oil and LNG flow out of the GCC countries and de-weaponisation of the Strait of Hormuz cannot be miraculously re-set in a matter of days. It will take time. India removed from this theatre of action and yet umbilically attached to it in a manner of speaking is also feeling the heat of the conflict. The Opposition, especially the Congress party, is breathing fire at the Union government for what it feels is a junking of traditional India-Iran ties and its refusal to condemn the targeted killing of Ayatollah Khamenei.

What are India’s options in this bloody game of thrones and kingdoms, an Islamic theocracy, an embattled Jewish state and an obdurate US president determined to rewrite the history books?

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There were three possibilities when the war erupted a few days back. The hope in Washington was that a successful, political and military decapitation strike would wobble the Iranian regime for good. A restless citizenry fed up with the excesses of the current Islamic dispensation would come out on the streets and effect a regime change. This optimism was based on the experiences of what happened in Iran in the year 1979.

Agitating students, left-wing intellectuals and Islamists thronged the streets of Tehran and other cities seeking a regime change. They were fed up with the misrule of the Shah of Iran and excesses carried out by his secret service—SAVAK. The Shah of Iran was overthrown, and the reign of the Pahlavi dynasty came to an end. The year 1979 has not repeated itself, at least not as yet at the time of writing this article.

The second possibility, a grim reality, is unfolding before our eyes. The war has expanded beyond the borders of Iran. Iran is following a ‘scorched earth policy’ and is carrying out missile and drone attacks on pro-American GCC countries, notably UAE, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Kuwait and even Iraq. Strategic oil reserves have been targeted, airports and US air bases and diplomatic assets in these countries have been hit, even shopping malls and apartment complexes have not been spared. This unexpected military onslaught has caught both the Americans and the Israelis by surprise. The Iranians are showcasing their military and missile capacity. They are communicating that if we feel the pain, so shall you. If we go down, so shall all of you. The stark message is that Iran could turn the booming economies of these countries into an economic wasteland.

And it would not end there. Who would want to invest in a war-torn, tension-shot region? Who would venture into a place where a civilisation war is raging? The Christian-Judaea armies pitted against Islamist forces?

And not to forget Iran would like nothing better that the citizenry in the GCC countries to upstage and overthrow the GCC monarchies and unelected governments in these countries under the banner of ‘Islam is in danger’. After all, in good times, everyone wants to climb on the bandwagon and in bad times, everyone wants to join the stone pelters.

The third possibility is the worst of them all. This war becomes a never-ending war, much like the Russia-Ukraine war, and drags on. A second, third or even fourth-tier leadership in Iran launches asymmetric warfare that bogs down America very much akin to what the Viet Cong did against the Americans decades ago. Such a turn of events could sink the whole region. Keep in mind the offensive and defensive capabilities of both the Israelis and the Americans are not inexhaustible. There are reports that the Americans are already short of interceptor missiles batteries of their THAAD air defence system. They want to divert some of that THAAD firepower from the South Korean theatre of action. Question being for how long you can cannibalise high-end missile firepower from other regions before it all runs out?

And when that day arrives, the Iranians would be waiting with their abundant reserves of cheap but deadly Shahed drones. Drones which can spread havoc in the region.

This is the scenario that is troubling our policy makers. Eighty per cent of our LNG comes from Qatar, which has all but shut shop. Twenty-eight to thirty per cent of our crude comes from Saudi Arabia whose biggest refinery Armaco’s Ras Tanura has taken direct drone hits. Production and distribution are curtailed. Iran’s IRGC (Islamic revolutionary guards) have choked the Strait of Hormuz, crippling a significant component of world trade.

The investment climate and confidence in the Dubai story is tottering. The one crore Indian diaspora working in these countries and sending remittances back home face an uncertain future. This is the true picture and perhaps it would not be presumptuous to assume that layoffs of our work force and a cut off of our crude supply from these countries could become a real possibility.

In the light of these developments, was it responsible of Sonia Gandhi and Rahul Gandhi to mount pressure on the government to condemn Khamenei’s assassination and question the prime minister’s trip to Israel. We don’t live in the seventies anymore when under Indira Gandhi and under the banner of the non-aligned movement, we cozied up to every dictator and despot in the world. Today, the world is guided by economic self-interest and not old-style sentimentalism and ideological fervour of letting the dictators of the world unite. Ayatollah Khamenei was more than that. He crushed the aspirations of a restive, young citizenry demanding freedom and rights with ruthlessness. He spawned paramilitary outfits like Hezbollah and Hamas that terrorised the region and beyond. He has periodically spoken out against us on the Kashmir issue. Sure, we had a working relationship with him, but to join in lamentations and finger pointing in his assassination and alienate Israel and America from us is too much of an ask. The Congress should know better.

Let us approach the present situation with complete honesty. We have no choice but to support the GCC countries and condemn the missile attacks against them. We should have no illusions that our economic and even our sociological future is in a sense tied up with these countries. This is our side, our only option. To back Tehran at this time would mean supporting a regime despised by most countries in the world.

Perhaps PM Modi had an inkling of how events would unfold in the Middle East during his recent Israel trip. That means the government had put a strategy in place. It did not move thoughtlessly in distancing itself from Iran and repeatedly extending support to the GCC countries. The government has probably figured out that eventually, the war will come to an uneasy end and the GCC countries will start limping back to normalcy. Iran, as we know now, would change forever. Maybe civil strife overtakes the country, maybe a more moderate regime assumes power. But it is inconceivable that the Iran of today, which alienates most countries on the globe, would survive in its present form.

This also means that America would eventually withdraw from the region, and the real victor of this bloody conflict would then emerge. Israel would be the predominant power in the region.

Perhaps PM Modi sensed all this and that perhaps explains the more than extraordinary warmth on display between both countries during his visit.

India’s only option then is securing its energy security and ensuring our diaspora is not dislocated or disturbed from this region. And our real learning from the conflict is we live in a world of political and military assets’ decapitation strikes. India would do well to remember this lesson in a future conflict against Pakistan. Always be the first off the ground.

(Juggi Bhasin is a veteran TV journalist, author and geopolitical commentator with his commentary featuring in The CAA Show on YouTube. The views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely those of the author. They do not necessarily reflect News18’s views)

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