Opinion | Bangladesh Poll Results, BNP And Politics Of Shadow Theocracy

Jajati K Pattnaik and Chandan K Panda

BNP and Jamaat-e-Islami remained long-term political partners due to their shared opposition to the Awami League

The Bangladesh Nationalist Party’s (BNP) electoral victory was predictable given its role in political history. It has the ground support, grassroots connection, and urban outreach.

The shocking overthrow of the Hasina government, fanning of religious fanaticism, anti-minority and anti-Hindu diatribe and targeted killings, anti-India rhetoric, collusion of foreign forces, sympathy vote over Khaleda Zia’s demise and the ban on Awami League cumulatively contributed to the electoral success of Tarique Rahman and his party, BNP.

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Jamaat and its affiliates and radical groups fanned the flames of fanaticism and exclusivism and turned the election in the direction of mere anti-India jibes and religious hatred. This successfully buried the issues of economy, deteriorating civic conditions, unemployment, communalism, security, health, and education.

Jamaat will not go away anywhere soon. It will sit as opposition to question the ruling government and constitutionally enjoy the veto power. It will exert significant pressure on BNP to peddle the theocratic project. BNP’s commitment to shadow theocracy will succumb to Jamaat’s pressure.

Anti-India and anti-minority politics will persist.

The difference is that BNP will try them in a softer way, while Jamaat will try them in a more direct and harsher way. But the rule of theocracy is in the offing. Secularism, women’s rights, minority rights, human rights, etc., will be mere bookish rhetoric and confined to constitutional verbosity. Jamaat’s views on women, religious fundamentalism, and minorities are unpardonable.

BNP, on the other hand, has always used religion as a tool for electoral success and political relevance. Therefore, BNP and Jamaat are the mirror images of each other. The difference rests in the degrees, the degrees of fundamentalism. The election will always remain a questionable thing because of the banning of the Awami League. This factor will defeat the claims of legitimacy, democracy, and fair play.

BNP and Jamaat political alliance

BNP and Jamaat-e-Islami remained long-term political partners due to their shared opposition to the Awami League. This marriage of convenience was designed to gain power and to push back against Sheikh Hasina’s attempt to secure a semblance of secularism amid a background of religious orthodoxy and dogma-driven blindness.

Jamaat was banned in 1972 for its explicit and vehement opposition to Bangladesh’s independence. Ziaur Rahman, the founder of the BNP, lifted this ban in 1976 and allowed Jamaat to participate in the political process. This discloses the intimacy, partnership, and ideology that both share.

Jamaat-BNP collaboration took place in the 1991 general election, and the BNP formed the government. The formal coalition between the two occurred in 1999 for the 2001 election. The coalition formed the government in 2001 and ran the country from 2001 to 2006. The Jamaat candidates were the ministers in the coalition government.

Therefore, the BNP’s image building and spinning narratives around it as liberal, secular, and moderate are mere demonstrative realities. The BNP and Jamaat share many things in common. Jamaat does it the hard way, and BNP chooses the softer approach. They share the same ideology with some cosmetic differences.

However, in a political space where power is the driving force, the conflict is likely to happen. Tarique Rahman’s softer approach to religious fundamentalism may not be appreciated by the hotheads of Jamaat. Tarique Rahman may be forced to meet some of the Jamaat’s demands. All that Sheikh Hasina did to bring Bangladesh onto the tracks of growth, prosperity, and development will go in vain at the bang of religious blindness.

BNP’s politics of soft fundamentalism

The BNP is always sandwiched between nationalism and religious identity. It has always used religion and the forces of fanaticism and fundamentalism to secure power and political relevance. This rapprochement has worked for the BNP. This has been the BNP’s most favourable political and electoral strategy. Ziaur Rahman replaced “Bangladeshi Nationalism" with the Awami League’s “Bengali Nationalism".

He changed the constitution in 1977 and removed secularism, and made the letter and spirit of the constitution more religious. He rehabilitated the religious fundamentalists who opposed the idea of Bangladesh as a separate nation based on linguistic identity. Therefore, the BNP’s role in promoting religious orthodoxy cannot be ignored.

Khaleda Zia also mainstreamed the Islamists. She was the architect of the coalition between BNP and Jamaat-e-Islami and gave Jamaat members ministerial positions in her cabinet. She banned Taslima Nasreen’s book, Lajja, which brought to light the suffering of the Hindu minorities.

Tarique Rahman’s portrayal of BNP as broad and inclusive is solely for media consumption and circulation among the international audience. His advocacy of democracy and secularism ignores its Party’s past and its open embrace of religious orthodoxy. Tarique Rahman’s first speech on December 25, 2025, upon landing in Bangladesh after a long exile, was full of platitudes and ended with his vision of Islamic identity promoting equality and not undermining it. This reveals his intention. It is also important to see what role Muhammad Yunus will play in Tarique Rahman’s government. Ironically, the Nobel Peace Prize winner could bring no peace to Bangladesh. He pushed Bangladesh to the brink of chaos and disruption.

India’s cautious approach

India has been the most patient neighbour despite the chaos and disruption that enveloped Bangladesh since Hasina’s ouster. Tarique Rahman will not change BNP’s anti-India DNA. He will play his game, the game of a rentier state. He will swing from one extreme to another, grabbing as much profit and benefit as he can.

China, the US, and Pakistan will play their roles to keep the unrest going and brew tension in India’s neighbourhood. To expect any dramatic change from BNP in its relations with India will be too ambitious, divorced from reality.

All his incompetences and failures will be portrayed as India’s making. He may use anti-India jibes as easy rhetoric to conceal his limitations. However, India will engage with BNP to mend relations. It is also difficult to predict how much Bangladesh under Tarique Rahman will be willing to concede to India’s cooperation. He will be under pressure from both the hinterland and overseas players and interest groups. India’s approach has always been neighbourhood-first. How much that will work is yet to be seen. However, India is indispensable to Bangladesh. The imperatives of geography cannot be ignored. Without India, Bangladesh cannot rise.

Jajati K Pattnaik is a Professor at the Centre for West Asian Studies, School of International Studies, Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi. Chandan Panda is a Professor at Central University of Karnataka, Kalaburagi, India. Views expressed are personal and solely those of the author, and do not necessarily reflect News18’s views.

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