Centrists Won’t Tell You Where “Moderating” on Trans Rights Ends Up

The recent example of the U.K. Labour Party shows that “compromising” rarely stops at some acceptable midpoint.

If the Democrats lose the upcoming midterm elections, our path out of competitive authoritarianism gets a lot longer, or disappears altogether. The political winds are at the Democrats’ backs, but the structure of our electoral system cuts against them. It could come down to a few close races. So the party is—very understandably—anxious to get its strategy right and not to leave gettable votes on the table.

And many centrist think tanks, columnists, and pundits have a pitch for an easy way to win more support: “Moderate” on trans rights.

This has been a perennial concern of the chattering classes for the entire Trump era, and the offer they put to Democrats is a seemingly attractive one: Remain supportive of a small and vulnerable segment of the population without seeming out of touch with much of America, in the words of Jonathan Cowan, president of Third Way. This was echoed more recently by Thomas Edsall, writing in The New York Times, who argued that Democrats voting to bar trans women from women’s sports would help them reconnect with the median voter.

And some Democrats are listening. California Governor (and possible presidential candidate) Gavin Newsom has had several stabs at “moderating” on trans rights. More recently, Representative Seth Moulton, running in a competitive primary against Ed Markey, argued that many Americans believe “that trans people should be protected,” but “when it comes to competitive sports, they feel uncomfortable.”

Overall, however, the party has not gone as far as the moderators feel is necessary. If they’re selling a train ride, Democrats will go a stop or two but then get off. They’ll mention the issue less, drop overtly “woke” language (if they ever used it at all), maybe even say something about women’s sports or young children medically transitioning and then backtrack, or partially backtrack. That’s it. 

Perhaps that’s as far as they’re willing to go. Perhaps they get pushback from progressives who have no interest in getting on the train at all. Newsom dropped the centrist shtick and rebranded himself as an anti-Trump firebreather. Moulton lost his primary in no small part because liberal voters are currently in no mood to compromise with the right. Centrists, of course, have bemoaned this—with constant Republican attacks, Democrats, it’s claimed, risk looking out of touch if they don’t stay on the train and moderate further. 

And with the pressure this high, they keep finding the odd Democrat who’ll listen, particularly those in front-line races. James Talarico, the Democratic candidate for Senate in Texas, recently reversed his position on trans participation in girls’ sports. This may not sound like that big a deal; the exact sort of compromise centrists are selling. Surely this is a fair trade for a red-state senator.

Just about every trans person I know thinks concerns about sports are misleadingly presented and vastly overblown. They also would trade restrictions here for broader social acceptance and inclusion in a heartbeat if they thought that was a deal that was on the table. They just don’t think that it is. And I think they’re correct to think that.

What centrists never mention is that we have a highly relevant case study, playing out in real time, of a major center-left party following their advice. The U.K. Labour Party is almost a “sliding doors” alternative timeline where democrats stay on the train. There are differences, of course, but both are the main center-left party in a historically two-party system and have had to grapple with a radicalizing right. Given our shared language and culture, they have often looked to the other for ideas on how to campaign or govern. 

And yet, the centrist advocates in the United States of moderation never, ever, ever mention the Labour Party. Perhaps they’re just not familiar; Americans can be insular like that. But I suspect the elite ones are. People who read news every day will have followed the key test case for their strategy. But you’d never know it. The below may explain why.

As someone who’s been politically active in LGBT rights in both countries, let me tell you what happens if you stay on the train to its terminus, i.e., to caving in to the right on this issue. First, in today’s environment, where fascism has largely captured the right, once you........

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