He’ll Need Some Luck, But James Talarico Can Win the Texas Senate Seat

Talarico awaits the result of a May 26 Cornyn-Paxton runoff. The scandal-plagued Paxton would give Democrats a real chance at an upset.

Do Democrats have a real chance of winning a Senate seat in Texas this year? Probably not. But Tuesday night’s election results were the best possible outcome for the party, and they create the conditions for an upset.

In the Democratic primary, state Representative James Talarico got over 50 percent of the vote, thereby defeating Representative Jasmine Crockett without a runoff. The Associated Press, CBS News, and other major news organizations have declared Talarico the winner, even though Crockett had not conceded as of early Wednesday morning. Avoiding the May 26 runoff is a coup for Democrats. The Talarico-Crockett race was becoming petty and testy, particularly between the candidates’ supporters. Another two months was likely to get worse and became very racial, since polls suggest that Talarico is dominant among white Texas Democrats and Crockett among African Americans.

Also, Talarico is probably a better general election candidate than Crockett. I am always wary of “electability” conversations, because they often end up punishing candidates who aren’t white, male, and/or Christian. It is almost certainly the case that some Texas general election voters wouldn’t back Crockett because she is a Black woman. But Democratic primary voters shouldn’t discriminate against minority candidates in primaries because they expect other voters to discriminate against those candidates in general elections. Also, assumptions about electability are often wrong—as politicians such as Barack Obama and Raphael Warnock have shown.

But Crockett would have had some specific challenges in a general election. She became one of the more famous politicians in America by leaning into being a hyper-partisan Democrat relentlessly attacking President Trump and Republicans. That’s what I appreciate about her. After the 2024 elections, when so many Democratic politicians seemed cowed by Trump’s victory, Crockett was describing Trump’s authoritarianism forthrightly and defending liberal values. It was such a relief to have........

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