Iran’s Hard-Liners Have Trump’s Number

The president is desperate for a deal. But the war he launched with Israel has only served to empower those who are quick to call his bluff.

If you were, for some reason, to only get your news about the war in Iran from the president’s Truth Social feed, you might be under the impression that the United States was on the brink of a historic military victory, perhaps its most significant since World War II. “Iran is collapsing financially!” Donald Trump posted shortly before midnight on Tuesday. “They want the Strait of Hormuz opened immediately—Starving for cash! Losing 500 Million Dollars a day. Military and Police complaining that they are not getting paid. SOS!!!”

Iran is undoubtedly in rough shape after weeks of U.S. and Israeli airstrikes, which have killed its longtime supreme leader, destroyed much of its military infrastructure, and turned much of Tehran, its capital, to rubble. But pain is a relative concept in war, and Iran’s leaders have inflicted plenty of it on Trump. Since they effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz to maritime trade, prices have soared worldwide, including a 30 percent jump at gas pumps in the United States; in turn, Trump’s already low approval rating has cratered to historic lows. Iran’s leaders think they can withstand more pain than Trump can, and they have good reason to: His decision Tuesday to extend a ceasefire indefinitely, after the Iranians had just balked at returning to the negotiating table, is proof that “Trump blinked first,” as The New York Times put the Iranian reaction. Trump is obviously more desperate to find a way out of a disastrous war that he started.

But the president’s flailing also further confirms the fundamental incoherence of his plan from the beginning. Trump never had a clear private—let alone........

© New Republic