Japan Welcomes Leaders of Indonesia and France While Japanese Business Strives for Russia

In late March-early April, Japan hosted the presidents of Indonesia and France – a clear reflection of global political change.

Growing influence of “second echelon” countries

Several factors contribute to this:

The weakening of NATO: the military-political alliance from the Cold War era is losing its relevance and may face disintegration.

The revival of the “loser powers” of World War II: there is a normalization and increase in standing of the countries that were defeated in that war.

The development of the “Global South”: the states belonging to this broad group are actively developing.

Each of the countries mentioned at the outset has achieved its current status owing to one of these trends. Japan, completing its “normalization,” is the world’s third-largest economy. France, possessing nuclear weapons, is one of the leaders of Europe and NATO. Indonesia, a representative of the “Global South,” is the largest Muslim-majority country and a key player in Southeast Asia.

Thus, the growing influence of Japan, Indonesia, and France amid the rapid transformation of the world order is clear. The recent negotiations between the Japanese Prime Minister and the presidents of Indonesia and France deserve to be closely examined.

Visit of Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto

The March 30-31 visit of Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto to Japan was his third in the past two years, but for the first time it was of an official nature. This visit marked another stage in bilateral relations that began as early as the 2000s, in which the military component has become increasingly significant in recent years. This is confirmed by the resumption last November of the “2+2” platform, involving the foreign affairs and defense ministers, following which an interesting joint statement was adopted.

Of no less interest is the brief joint summary on the outcome of the meeting between Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi and Indonesian President Prabowo. This document outlines a list of issues discussed, covering bilateral relations, issues in Southeast Asia, and the Persian Gulf region. The phrase “Free and Open Indo-Pacific” (FOIP), which is attributed to former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, was used. However, since the mid-2010s, it has been used in documents adopted by the United States together with all its Asian allies, when there is an implicit need to identify China as a threat to freedom of navigation in the Indo-Pacific region.

Nevertheless, Indonesia, like other Southeast Asian countries, finds itself in a difficult position. It has to balance between two influential forces in the subregion: the Japan-US tandem and China. Although Indonesia is shifting toward the former, this does not imply a rupture of relations with Beijing, its key trading partner. On the contrary, Indonesia emphasizes its desire to further develop ties with China, as confirmed, for example, by Chinese Premier Li Qiang’s visit in May 2025.

French President Emmanuel Macron visits Japan

France has recently been engaged in the same balancing act, though naturally in its own way. The same can be said for all other leading European countries. In addition to the above-mentioned objective factor of NATO’s growing irrelevance, the stimulus for this is the well-known peculiarity of Donald Trump’s foreign policy and public behavior. For now he is still the leader of the country that is the alliance’s main participant.

An important stage in this balancing strategy was the state visit of French President Macron and his wife to Japan, which took place from March 31 to April 2. During the visit, the guests were received by the Imperial Couple, which was particularly emphasized by the Japanese media. The visit’s main event was the talks between Macron and Prime Minister Takaichi on April 1, as well as their subsequent joint press conference. Both made several notable statements regarding bilateral relations and current world events, especially concerning the latest escalation of the situation in the Middle East.

Commentators note that the parties’ intention to “deepen strategic cooperation” came against the backdrop of Trump’s revival of the Monroe Doctrine and the attack on Iran in defiance of international law. The international uncertainty generated by the current US administration is identified as an important stimulus for realizing this intention.

Possible restoration of Japanese-Russian relations

A report from Japan’s leading news agency, Kyodo News, that a delegation of Japanese business leaders will visit Russia in the near future raises an eyebrow. The delegation will include representatives of one of the divisions of the largest financial and industrial conglomerate, Mitsubishi Group, which has an annual turnover of $600 billion and employs around one million people. Amid the series of ambiguous signals previously emanating from Tokyo regarding the restoration of Japanese-Russian relations, this report is groundbreaking.

Political geography, much like choosing neighbors on the staircase landing, does not give us the opportunity to choose our “most preferred” partner countries. Moreover, the true value of any preferences is tested only by practice. Today, Russia is probably not facing a more complex foreign policy situation than the USSR did on the eve of World War II. It is worth recalling that just two months before that war, a fateful and perhaps still underestimated neutrality pact was signed with Japan.

Ten years ago, after prolonged de facto sabotage, the Abe government was ultimately forced to impose sanctions against Russia, previously initiated by the US administration. Japan has its own foreign policy problems that do not allow it to sacrifice its critically necessary alliance with Washington. And these problems, along with Russia’s potential partner’s limited maneuvering, must be taken into account when building relations with Japan.

The restoration of these relations themselves would be fully consistent with declarations about a radical turn to the East in Russia’s foreign policy preferences, given that two-thirds of its territory is located on the Asian continent. Moreover, global processes are also shifting to the Indo-Pacific, where life will unfold for the foreseeable future — a life that is extremely complex and contradictory, subject to various kinds of high-uncertainty factors. But then again, there is no such thing as real life being any different.

This global trend has long been grasped by the leading countries of Europe, which are not only monitoring it but also restructuring their foreign policies in accordance with it. This is evidenced, among other things, by the visit of the French President to Japan discussed here.

Vladimir Terekhov, expert on the issues of the Asia-Pacific region

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