Beyond Tariffs: The Geopolitical Unravelling of the U.S-Canada Partnership

The U.S.-Canada relationship is entering a period of strategic change as economic tensions, U.S. pressure and Canada’s push for diversification challenge the foundations of their traditional partnership.

From Closest Partners to Strategic Friction

Before this trade war, the two states were close partners, having signed pacts and treaties like the 1965 Auto Pact, the 1958 NORAD agreement, and the USMCA free trade agreement. The recent rupture in US-Canada relations is a result of a dispute that has gradually moved beyond the tariff war. President Trump frequently addresses, in his speeches, Canada as the 51st state of the US, and recently President Trump announced the renaming of Lake Ontario to Lake America, questioning the sovereignty of Ottawa. Now the question is not about whether the tariff war can be negotiated; rather, it is about whether US-Canada relations can continue under a more transactional approach by Washington.

What Is the US Trying to Achieve?

The confrontation with Canada cannot be solely understood through the trade war. The question is what Washington wants to achieve by imposing economic pressure on Canada.

Canada’s complete dependence on the US market gives Washington considerable leverage. The two countries are connected through the United States-Mexico-Canada (USMCA) free trade agreement. It was designed to support fair trade and economic growth, but the tariff policy of Washington is now changing the value of USMCA that it once had. Washington is deeply concerned that China is using Mexico and........

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