The effects of the Iran War and the future of the UAE’s role in the oil market

The UAE’s official withdrawal from OPEC and OPEC on the eve of May 2026 is a “turn” in energy geopolitics, from the “institutional convergence” model to “strategic autonomy”.

From another perspective, Abu Dhabi seeks to make the most of the remaining “opportunity” in energy transition by accelerating the extraction and production of oil.

With the UAE’s “divergence” from Saudi Arabia and the growing rifts in the GCC in areas such as competition for foreign policy and defining the role of regional leadership, the “Emirates First” policy and an independent player in the energy equation are being considered.

The US-Israeli War Against Iran

The UAE has played a large direct and indirect role in facilitating and assisting the attack on Iran. Many in Iran believe that during the 40-day war, there was a lot of evidence and clues that showed that either the UAE attacked Iran or had visible cooperation with the aggressor and threatened Iran’s national interests.

In recent months, the UAE has suffered the most from Tehran’s retaliatory blow, and the UAE’s gas exports have stopped, and the UAE’s oil production (1.27 million barrels) has also decreased.

Also, the UAE is set to increase its daily production capacity to around 5 million barrels by 2027. But so far, the Iran war has disrupted energy supplies and supply chains through the vital Strait of Hormuz, damaging production facilities and slowing down the UAE’s national plans.

Crises and the Future of the UAE’s Role in the Hydrocarbon Market

The UAE’s decision-making on the........

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