Lula, Trump, and the Geopolitics of Rare Earths: Brazil’s Position Between Washington and Beijing

Beneath the diplomatic protocol of Lula’s recent visit to Washington lay a strategic contest over rare-earth resources, the ongoing U.S.-China rivalry, and Brazil’s efforts to leverage geopolitical competition for national advantage ahead of the upcoming presidential election.

From my perspective, the urgency behind the visit was unmistakably geopolitical. Rare earths—those minerals that have become the quiet protagonists of global power struggles—were front and center, especially with Trump’s own high-stakes meeting with Xi Jinping just around the corner. Brazil, for its part, rushed to prepare legislation on rare-earth exploration, eager to have its house in order before coming to the negotiating table with Washington. And Trump seemed intent on evaluating Brazil’s position before facing Xi this week.

Brazil, as Lula stated, was firm on two crucial points. First, no more shipping raw rare earths abroad—any minerals leaving the country must be processed and refined on Brazilian soil. Second, there would be no exclusive club. No single nation will get privileged access to exploration rights. The message was clear: Brazil will not stop doing business with China simply because Washington occasionally demands it, as was the case with 5G technology. Brazil is ready to do business, but on its own terms and with anyone willing to respect those boundaries – affirming its sovereignty.

Domestic Politics: Lula, Bolsonaro, and the October Elections

This visit wasn’t only about diplomatic chess moves. Lula walked into that meeting acutely aware that Brazil’s October presidential election is being shaped as much by international alliances as by anything happening at home. The symbolic weight of who gets to stand side by side with Washington is not lost on any of the political camps competing for power in........

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