Brazil’s Judicial Crisis: Why Should the World Pay Attention? It is Not Just a Judicial Crisis – It’s About the Elections

Brazil is now in the last weeks before the presidential election on October 4, during a severe institutional crisis involving the Supreme Federal Court (STF), the Federal Police, and the government of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva.

The consequences extend well beyond a single judicial decision. The Supreme Federal Court (STF) is itself becoming increasingly divided, as Mendonça’s stance quickly won over Justices Luiz Fux and Kassio Nunes Marques, whereas Justice Gilmar Mendes asked for more time, thereby preventing the case from being concluded immediately. The powers of the court president and the extent of constitutional authority are at stake.

For an international reader, the most important point is that Brazil’s judicial crisis is now closely linked with electoral politics. The suspension of the head of the Federal Police has an impact on an organisation which is at the heart of major criminal investigations and directly questions the executive’s right to appoint its leadership, such as the Federal Police. The ensuing institutional disorder could have a political weakening effect on Lula while opening the way for Flávio Bolsonaro, the son of the former president Jair Bolsonaro, and the broader Brazilian far right; the polling indicates that Lula’s earlier lead has narrowed considerably.

There is also a geopolitical aspect to it. The increasing alignment around Mendonça and the Bolsonaro camp is part of a wider political initiative that receives support or encouragement from Washington, as some sources have pointed out based on Secretary of State Marco Rubio on Brazil’s challenge.

The reason this moment is so........

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