A Change of Guard in Nepal

The gigantic electoral victory of the Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) in the recently concluded general election of Nepal demonstrates how the country is turning a new page in the history of its electoral politics.

The result of the election sprung up new results. The most obvious and important was the landslide victory of the Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP)’s prominent leader Balendra ‘Balen’ Shah. Launched in 2022 by Rabi Lamichhane as an alternative voice to the existing political parties like the Communist Party of Nepal (Unified Marxist-Leninist) and Nepali Congress, RSP has emerged as a formidable political force on the Nepali political scene.

According to reports, the RSP won 182 of 275 seats. It won 124 seats whose voting was held under the First Past the Post System (FPTP), with a significant lead in other seats. In addition, it won another 58 seats under the proportional representation counting system.

This victory is a part of a much broader social churning in Nepal’s social discourse. The youth, known in popular culture as Gen Z, were the harbingers of this new wave of Nepali politics. RSP’s victory can be traced back to the large-scale protests orchestrated by the Gen Z organizations in September 2025. While the immediate trigger was the banning of leading social media platforms by the then government, the protests that ensued centered on the broader issues of corruption, decline in the quality of life, lack of employment opportunities, and utter disenchantment with the style of politics of the old guard, many of whom, including their kin, were leading an uber-luxurious lifestyle that triggered ubiquitous grievances of nepotism and favoritism.

However, it becomes essential to place this new turning point in Nepali politics in the broader context of the great power competition between India and China in South Asia.

Expectation of the Revival of the India First Stance

Sandwiched between two geopolitical heavyweights, Nepal’s domestic politics has always been shaped by its external geopolitical realities. In that context, the victory of Balendra Shah is being seen in India’s foreign policy and strategic circles as the emergence of a new government that will commit itself to the formulation of an India-first policy. A Madhesi, the prime minister-designate’s social identity holds a lot of currency in India, particularly when seen from the perspective of the social coalitions Delhi has been looking at in the recently concluded elections.

A revival of the India First stance will ease a lot of strained nerves in New Delhi when it comes to dealing with the new neighboring countries in South Asia. A pro-India government in Nepal is likely to prove a shot in the arm for New Delhi’s strategic considerations when it comes to the issue of India’s border security in the northern and eastern states that border Nepal and China.

However, a note of caution that Delhi must ponder is that despite possessing a Madhesi background, his political stance has been highly independent. Hence, New Delhi must temper its expectations from an ‘India First’ stance to an ‘India-friendly’ pitch, rather than a completely pro-India pitch, especially when his core voter base — Gen Z — prioritizes Nepali sovereignty over everything else.

Maintaining the Status Quo

For Beijing, a change of guard in Nepal is particularly significant because this change of guard is going to lead to the reorientation of the policies followed by the old parties with regard to China. Particularly noteworthy in this context is the substantial presence of Chinese capital in the infrastructure, thermal power, renewable energy, and technology sectors of Nepal. All this presence is under the economic-commercial framework of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), of which Nepal is an important part in South Asia.

The election of RSP is expected to lead to new geostrategic and geo-economic calculations in Kathmandu with regard to Nepal’s economic sovereignty, political interests, and the burgeoning influence India exerts, both civilizationally and politically.

The foreign policy mandarins in Beijing will certainly be looking forward to the possibility of the continuation of the status quo under the new government.

Therefore, the victory of Balen Shah is undoubtedly leading to a lot of geopolitical jostling, particularly as the voters in the polities of South Asia are increasingly opting for leaderships that are a technocratic-populist blend. The coming times will be really interesting for the geopolitics of the Himalayas.

Pranay Kumar Shome, a research analyst who is a PhD candidate at Mahatma Gandhi Central University, Bihar, India

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