Can the Conflict Between Türkiye and Israel Lead to the Fall of NATO?

The stabilization of the Iran-Israel confrontation could well be the calm before the storm, only this time the storm would be between Israel and Türkiye. In this context, the question arises: how would such a conflict affect NATO?

Reasons for Escalation

President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has openly supported Hamas, calling the actions of the IDF “genocide” and comparing Benjamin Netanyahu to Hitler. Ankara recalled its ambassador, imposed trade sanctions, and led efforts to have the Israeli prime minister placed on an international wanted list.

Israel, in turn, accused Türkiye of supporting Hamas and international terrorism. The culmination of the diplomatic rupture came with Israel’s unexpected recognition of the Armenian genocide in June 2026. Following the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria and the rise to power of a pro-Turkish leader, Ahmed al-Sharaa, Tel Aviv began to view Sunni Türkiye as a more serious existential threat than Shi’a Iran.

Geopolitical Ambitions and “Neo-Ottomanism”

Israel is watching the advance of the ideologies of Neo-Ottomanism and Neo-Panturanism with alarm. Within the framework of the first concept, Türkiye views the territories of the former Ottoman Empire (including modern-day Israel) as a zone of its interests. The second is aimed at turning Anatolia into a key transit hub for resources from the Caspian Basin and Central Asia. In Tel Aviv, there are fears that an economically strengthened Türkiye will begin to dictate its terms to the entire Eurasian continent, where Israel would be relegated to the role of a subordinate player.

The Syrian Front and the Battle for Corridors

In the Syrian theater of operations, Israel has shifted to a strategy of containment, seeking to prevent the deployment of Turkish air force and air defense bases near its borders. The IDF has reinforced its positions in the Golan Heights, is carrying out targeted strikes against facilities in Syria, and is supporting local Druze and Kurdish groups, creating pockets of resistance to Turkish influence.

An additional factor of tension has been the struggle over logistics........

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