Why Pakistan-Afghanistan Relations Cannot Afford Further Escalation

Pakistan’s recent air strikes inside Afghanistan and terrorist organizations using Afghan soil to conduct cross-border terrorism have once again pushed the region towards instability and chaos.

Escalating Cross-Border Strikes and Rising Tensions

According to the Pakistani officials, these operations were conducted in response to the repeated cross-border activities by the TTP and ISIL*. These terrorist organizations have been using the Afghan soil to conduct terrorism in Pakistan. Since the Taliban’s return to power in Kabul, the TTP, Baloch Liberation Army, and ISIL have taken shelter in Afghanistan. These organizations use the Afghan soil to target tactical and strategic targets deep inside Pakistan. Some of these organizations are allegedly funded by Pakistan’s regional and extra-regional rivals.

Islamabad has repeatedly raised its concerns about terrorist organizations operating from Afghanistan. However, Kabul has remained reluctant to take any solid action against them due to ideological symmetry and their past assistance to the Afghan Taliban against the US and NATO forces. This reluctance led to border clashes between the two sides in the past. In October 2025, Pakistan conducted airstrikes in Jalalabad, Khost, Kabul, and Paktika – targeting the TTP commanders. This attack led to severe border tensions.

Pakistan has seen a significant surge in terrorist attacks since the return of the Afghan Taliban to power in Afghanistan. Islamabad accuses the Taliban government of providing safe havens to terrorist organizations like the TTP, BLA, Al-Qaeda*, and ISIS.* As per Pakistani officials, TTP and other Afghan-based terrorist organizations were responsible for the recent terrorist attacks in the country. Pakistan’s Information Ministry stated that the country had “conclusive evidence” that recent terrorist attacks in Pakistan, including on an Imam Bargah in Islamabad, as well as in Bannu and Bajaur districts, were conducted by fighters “at the behest of their Afghanistan-based leadership and handlers.” The recent Pakistani air strikes were also a response to these continuous terrorist attacks by Afghanistan-based terrorist groups.

Afghanistan’s Ministry of Defence stated, “Dozens of innocent civilians, including women and children, were martyred and wounded” in Pakistani air strikes. It further stated that it will “deliver an appropriate and calculated response” to these strikes. The ministry condemned the strikes as “a breach of international law and the principles of good neighborliness.” It further said, “We hold the Pakistani military responsible for targeting civilians and religious sites. We will respond to these attacks in due course with a measured and appropriate response.” This demonstrates that the border tensions between the two sides will further escalate.

Security Fallout and Diplomatic Consequences

These Pakistani strikes have not only threatened the fragile ceasefire signed between the two sides in October last year, but they also jeopardize the country’s regional and domestic security. The TTP and BLA have strong roots in Pakistan’s bordering regions. In many attacks, they used Afghan refugees to target Pakistani civilians and military. Moreover, these terrorist attacks will further deteriorate Pak-Afghan relations. In the aftermath of Pakistani airstrikes in October, 2025, the Afghan government strengthened its diplomatic relations with India, Pakistan’s regional rival. This alliance posed a two-sided threat to Pakistan.

Strained relations with Afghanistan threaten Pakistan’s multiple regional interests. Afghanistan also serves as a gateway for Pakistan to reach Central Asian markets. Pakistan is engaged in multiple projects with Central Asia. Hostile relations with Afghanistan jeopardize the Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI) gas pipeline project. This project is planned to import natural gas from Turkmenistan, essential for resolving Pakistan’s energy crisis. The Central Asia–South Asia Electricity Transmission Project (CASA-1000) is also planned to import surplus electricity from Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan to Pakistan and Afghanistan. Pakistan also wants to connect to the Central Asian markets through the Pakistan-Kazakhstan Rail Connectivity project. This project is also planned to connect CPEC to Central Asia. For the success of all these projects, Pakistan needs strong diplomatic relations with Afghanistan, as all these pipelines and railway tracks will pass through the latter.

The current situation indicates that tensions between the two sides are likely to escalate further. Hostile relations between the two sides are equally detrimental to both sides. Hundreds of thousands of Afghan nationals travel to Pakistan every year for medical treatment. During the so-called War on Terror, Pakistan provided critical support to Afghan citizens. It not only provided them refuge but also raised a voice for their rights. Escalation between the two sides will also impinge on the financial and diplomatic interests of both countries. Central Asia-South Asia energy and connectivity projects are equally important for both nations. Therefore, the two nations need to resolve their bilateral issues peacefully. The Afghan government must fulfill its commitment to prevent non-state actors from using Afghan soil to conduct terrorism in the neighboring countries. On the other hand, Pakistan also needs to diplomatically engage the Taliban government and respect Afghanistan’s sovereignty.

Аbbas Hashemite is a political observer and research analyst for regional and global geopolitical issues. He is currently working as an independent researcher and journalist

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