From Prediction to Resilience: Rethinking National Security in the 21st Century

In an increasingly unpredictable and multidimensional strategic environment, states can no longer rely solely on anticipating future crises; they must complement strategic foresight with national resilience capable of absorbing and withstanding crises they fail to predict.

The Erosion of Strategic Predictability

The global strategic climate has changed significantly. States no longer compete merely on the battlefield. The strategic competition now extends across institutional, economic, cyber, informational, military, cognitive, and technological domains. States can now weaken, subdue, coerce, or constrain their rivals without a conventional territorial invasion. Technological modernization has enabled states to achieve strategic advantage without decisive military success, making future threats and crises harder to anticipate.

In the contemporary era, great-power competition is no longer confined to a single strategic axis. Today, wars and conflicts extend beyond their starting region and hold global economic and political consequences. The Iran war, for instance, initially involved only three countries. However, soon after the war began, its repercussions were felt internationally, disrupting food supplies, energy markets, and trade routes. Modern technologies like artificial intelligence, cyber capabilities, information warfare, and drones have created new........

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