Oct 28, 2026 15:04 pm IST

Opinion | Is America Staring At A 'Blue Wave' Again? Why Trump Feels Threatened

Wonder of wonders, the so-called 'red-neck' states - like Texas - are leaning democrat, and Vivek Ramaswamy is probably going to lose in Ohio. But will this be enough for a 'blue wave'?

Tara Kartha Tara Kartha Columnist

Tara Kartha Columnist

There has rarely been an election, that too a mid-term, that has caused such interest the world over. But then, not often has there been a President who has caused so much damage to not just his own country, but to almost everyone he has dealt with - neighbours, allies, and friends alike. And the worst of it, even in the unlikely contingency that he is removed, the America that he crafted is not expected to change very much in the near future. It is not really about Trump. It is about an America that elected him to power, knowing full well that he escaped impeachment twice earlier. And it is about an America that has turned almost irrevocably to the right, becoming a flag-bearer of the dictum that might is right.

Luckily, it is not all Americans. Therein lies hope.

The Way The Cookie Crumbles

First, the mid-term electoral system is one that will see every seat in Congress going up for grabs, all 435 of them. In the Senate, just a third retire, which means that a total shift may be unlikely from the present Republican domination. Among the 35 states that go to vote for the Senate, about ten are heavily Republican-dominated, while another 10 lean towards Republicans. But those trends are usually for federal elections. US states, much like India's, tend to vote quite differently when it comes to Senatorial or Congressional seats. Overall, the latest poll puts the House solidly in Democrat hands, with top election prognosticator Cooks noting, "Republicans' path to keeping control of the House has all but evaporated. The outstanding question is how large Democrats' majority will be in 2027".

Wonder of wonders, the so-called 'red-neck' states - like Texas - are leaning democrat, and Vivek Ramaswamy is probably going to lose in Ohio. But the point is this: while Democrats may inch into the Senate, there is no likelihood of getting a majority there, much less the two-thirds majority needed to impeach the President. The numbers just don't add up. So, Trump is going to continue. The point is whether his legislation will.

The top issues in the race are not very different........

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