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Royce Koop: Pierre Poilievre outshines a flailing Carney

For the first time, Canadians saw the Conservative leader as a true prime minister in waiting

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Pierre Poilievre’s speech on Thursday to the Economic Club of Canada in which he laid out his vision for how Canada should navigate international challenges received near-universal praise, including from some unexpected quarters.

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The speech had two particularly noteworthy aspects. First, Poilievre argued that Canada needs to focus inward and develop our own internal capacity and capability to withstand foreign threats. Second, he took a tougher line on U.S. President Donald Trump, firmly and clearly rejecting his threats of annexation. The speech was sober and dense, with a clear focus on policy proposals. There was a great deal for Canadians to sink their teeth into.

Royce Koop: Pierre Poilievre outshines a flailing Carney Back to video

Commentators from former NDP leader Tom Mulcair to former B.C. premier Christy Clark were full of praise. Even talking head emissaries from the Liberal government grudgingly conceded Poilievre had hit a home run, while nevertheless grousing that he hadn’t delivered these sentiments earlier.

Some of the positive responses startled me, as they came from people I had sized up as strong supporters of Mark Carney. Raghu Venugopal, an emergency room doctor from Toronto, for example, is normally a reliable source of anti-Conservative content on social media. But, following Poilievre’s speech, Venugopal took to X to express his gratitude: “Thank you Leader Poilievre. I heard your full speech. Thank you for your unflinching Canadian patriotism; for saying Trump is wrong and for serious policy ideas. I’ve never voted Conservative. All Canadians should listen to your speech.”

The speech seems to have resonated in precisely the way that will most help Poilievre.

But this all raises something of a puzzle. As Sean Speer of the Hub has pointed out, Poilievre’s speech did not mark a significant substantive departure from what he has been saying for at least a year-and-a-half. Despite calls for Poilievre to pivot, he largely stuck with positions he held previously. But if there was not much of a substantive change, then what can explain the accolades?

One argument is that the speech represents a “tonal reset.” Poilievre is the most effective leader of the Opposition since Arthur Meighen, regularly slicing and dicing the prime minister and the members of his cabinet in Question Period. But in this speech, rather than employing sharp attacks and slogans, he laid out a clear governing alternative, quoting Marcus Aurelius and Pierre Elliot Trudeau in the process. The speech was calm, expansive, and statesmanlike, and Canadians responded positively to it for that reason.

This is a good argument. But there are two other explanations I can think of.

The first is that since so many Canadians have been essentially propagandized by the Liberal Party and the mainstream media into thinking that Poilievre will roll over for Trump, that any indication to the contrary is both welcome and carries great weight.

An awful lot of Canadians have been rattled by Trump’s bombastic threats of annexation. Considering that, the Liberals’ accusation that Poilievre would “bend the knee” to the U.S. president, while ridiculous, was likely very damaging.

In the speech, Poilievre delivered a forceful but responsible rebuttal of Trump’s rhetoric. It struck a chord. And the fact that his rebuttal was measured rather than flamboyant and buffoonish (in contrast, think of Carney’s cringeworthy dancing with his elbows in the air last election night) made it that much more credible.

The reaction suggests that Carney supporters, many of whom previously indicated they would vote for Poilievre, are open to Conservative overtures. But they must be persuaded. In engaging their concerns about Trump head-on, Poilievre seems to have effectively done so.

The second explanation is that Poilievre’s calm, measured, focused and substance-oriented speech coincides with a growing realization that Carney has achieved virtually nothing that he promised in the last election campaign. Worse, it is becoming evident that Carney has made the challenge of U.S. tariffs worse, not better. Poilievre’s speech primed this realization by emphasizing that the government should be judged based on results, not rhetoric.

A year ago, an elite consensus developed that Carney was the right person to take on the challenges facing the country. He had the credentials and the resume to steer Canada through a difficult, dangerous period.

Now, that image is dissolving, and fast. Carney has delivered speeches, signed MOUs, and lectured our ears off. But the actual tangible outcome of all this has been essentially nil.

Tariffs went up, not down, as his self-imposed deadline for delivering tariff relief came and went. Thousands of Canadians lost their jobs. The continued existence of CUSMA is now in question. We’re no closer to a new pipeline to carry Canadian oil to new markets. Canada will likely soon slide into a recession. The deficit has exploded.

Instead of new trade opportunities, Carney travelled to Beijing to pledge Canada to a “new world order” led by China and its allies, including Russia. Even the recent trip to India was marred with controversy as a government official remarkably announced that India was “no longer a threat” to Canada, setting off a kerfuffle in the Liberal party as MPs who got an earful from Sikh constituents sought to distance themselves from the nonsensical claim.

The prime minister’s forays into international affairs have similarly fizzled. The much-ballyhooed speech at Davos, in which Carney volunteered to lead a bloc of small countries to oppose U.S. bullying, went precisely nowhere. As establishment Canada celebrated Carney’s speech, officials in international organizations and foreign governments snickered behind our backs at the prime minister’s presumptuousness.

Suddenly, the image of Carney as a cool, calm manager has been replaced with a new image: a flailing politician who overpromises and underdelivers.

The prime minister’s failure opens a new opportunity for Poilievre. The image of Poilievre clearly and responsibly staking his position to the Economic Club provided a contrast with Carney. Suddenly, it is Poilievre, not Carney, who is projecting the image of a calm, collected leader.

Poilievre’s speech mattered because, for a lot of Canadians, they saw for the first time a prime minister in waiting.

Royce Koop is a professor of political science at the University of Manitoba.

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