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Jesse Kline: How Iran triggered a world war for its own destruction

Even Canada is considering involving itself in this conflict

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Anyone who has picked up a newspaper over the past week can be forgiven for thinking we might be witnessing the start of World War III. Except for the fact that no one, other than Iran’s terrorist buddies in Hezbollah, is lining up on the side of the Islamic Republic.

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What started as joint U.S. and Israeli strikes targeting Iran’s theocratic regime on Feb. 28 quickly escalated as Iranian forces and their proxies began striking targets throughout the region.

Jesse Kline: How Iran triggered a world war for its own destruction Back to video

Hezbollah entered the fray on Monday, drawing Israel into a multi-front war and attacking a British army base in Cyprus, a European Union member state.

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Numerous European countries have since announced plans to send warships to the Mediterranean to protect the island nation, including France, which deployed a nuclear-powered aircraft carrier, Italy, Greece, Spain, the Netherlands and the United Kingdom, though its ship is not expected to set sail until next week.

There’s also a risk that NATO’s 32 members states could be drawn into the conflict, after Turkey announced on Wednesday that the alliance’s air defences had intercepted an incoming Iranian missile.

Iran has simultaneously been launching missiles and drones at its Gulf neighbours, including countries it has traditionally had friendly relations with.

According to data from the Israeli Institute for National Security Studies, as of Wednesday, Iran had fired more missiles and drones at Gulf states — including Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates — than at Israel.

Oil refineries have been targeted in Bahrain and Saudi Arabia, forcing the shutdown of Saudi’s largest refinery and one of its biggest oil export terminals, which will likely prove to be a red line for the oil-dependent country.

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On Monday, Qatar made the case to the United Nations that it reserves the right to respond to Iranian aggression with force, while on Thursday, Azerbaijan threatened to retaliate after two drones crossed the border, hitting an airport and coming dangerously close to striking a school.

Tehran also launched attacks aimed at Kurdish forces in Iraq, amid reports that they’re preparing a ground invasion.

Meanwhile, Iran’s two closest allies, Russia and China, are nowhere to be found.

The U.S. accused Moscow of sharing intelligence on American interests in the Middle East with Tehran, but, bogged down with its own war in Ukraine, Russia does not appear interested in offering material support, with a Kremlin spokesperson stating bluntly that, “It’s not our war.”

Beijing has also limited its involvement to issuing strongly worded statements against the war.

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It would appear as though Iran is betting that targeting its neighbours will cause them to put pressure on the U.S. to end its bombing campaign.

The strategy makes some sense, given that numerous Gulf states have already warned that their air defences are running dry, and experts are saying that stockpiles could run out in a matter of days.

Many of those countries are also far less able to withstand sustained aerial bombardments than Israel, where virtually everyone has a safe room or is within spitting distance of a bomb shelter, and are protected by the world’s most advanced missile shield.

Yet it is a strategy that so far does not appear to be working, and risks drawing more belligerents into the conflict against Iran.

This is the context in which Prime Minister Mark Carney appeared to change his tune over whether Canada could eventually get involved in some capacity.

Throughout most of the week, Carney and his senior ministers insisted there would be no role for Canada to play. But on Wednesday, the prime minister admitted that, “One can never categorically rule out participation,” while saying, “We will stand by our allies when it makes sense.”

Canada’s chief of the defence staff, Gen. Jennie Carignan, who met with her European counterparts on Friday to discuss the protection of allies in the region, said that Canadian Forces would not participate in the U.S.-Israeli campaign against Iran, but noted that, “Our Gulf partners may require defence and support, so within that context, this would be the type of military options that we could consider.”

It’s a bit rich for Ottawa to be so eager to come to the aid of the Arab dictatorships after spending the past two-and-a-half years leaving our traditional allies in Israel high and dry as they came under fire from all sides.

But keeping our options open is the correct position to take, especially if we can in any way help countries withstand sustained attacks, in what Iran is clearly hoping will turn into a war of attrition.

Indeed, the biggest risk right now does not come from Iran, which is in danger of running short on munitions, especially as the U.S. and Israel continue pummelling its missile launchers and weapons-production facilities.

The risk is that the U.S. will not have the fortitude to withstand a lengthy war, thus allowing a genocidal regime with nuclear ambitions to live to fight another day.

Trump administration officials have been clear all week that they are hoping for a speedy resolution to the conflict, as they face intense domestic pressure.

U.S. President Donald Trump faces opposition not just from Democrats, but from isolationists within his own base. And polls show that the majority of Americans disapprove of the war, which could hurt Republicans at the ballot box if the conflict drags on for months and more American blood is spilled.

Canada’s dilapidated military can, of course, only do so much. But we have a treaty obligation to protect our NATO allies in Turkey and a moral obligation to ensure the mullahs in Tehran cannot continue to butcher their own people and fund terrorism around the world.

Ottawa’s ever-changing position on the conflict leaves much to be desired, but the Carney government may end up stumbling its way into doing the right thing in the end.

National Post jkline@postmedia.comTwitter.com/accessd

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