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Jack Middleton: Qatar’s LNG crisis proves Canada must build now

Global instability highlights the need to build resource export capacity

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According to the CEO of QatarEnergy, 17 per cent of Qatar’s Liquified Natural Gas (LNG) export capacity has been wiped out for up to five years. For context, Qatar is the third largest exporter in the world, behind the United States and Australia.

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This disruption is one of the most significant events in energy markets over the past decade, with impacts that will be felt around the world. A recent report from Baringa suggests that the attack will cause LNG prices to remain elevated until 2031.

Jack Middleton: Qatar’s LNG crisis proves Canada must build now Back to video

When I started my career in natural resources over a decade ago, I heard plenty of debates about how there would be no market for LNG in the future and that the dream was over for Canada. Even up to 2018, politicians like then-B.C. Green Party Leader Andrew Weaver were emphatic: “The thing about LNG is it’s non-existent here in B.C. I’ve been saying for four years, there is no market for LNG. I mean, we missed the boat on that.”

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But time and time again, the impact of geopolitics surprises the world. Fukushima, Ukraine, and now the war in Iran all highlight how stability of supply is key for natural resource projects. Those who have the capacity to produce in stable jurisdictions will see the upside — not only in revenue, but in the ability to supply allies when it matters most.

Those in high-risk regions like Qatar may have what the world wants, but delivering may be beyond their control. With nearly 70 per cent of global gas reserves in high-risk regions like Russia, Iran, and Qatar, stability will only grow more fundamental.

Here’s another fundamental truth — Canadians shouldn’t just build for today — we must always be building for tomorrow.

Mining projects, for example, take decades to find, prove and build. But their production helps Canada navigate for the long-term. From the Copper Mountain mine to the Elkview metallurgical coal mine, these projects create a solid fiscal foundation for our country. For example, in the 2026 the budget, mining revenue projected $191 million in 2026-27. Mining also generates $18 billion in annual economic activity and almost 30 per cent of the B.C.’s goods exports.

This long-term stability is why LNG projects in B.C. were critical ten years ago, and it’s why they’re so important today. The attack in Qatar just sidelined around 12.8 million tons per annum (MTPA) of LNG. Canada’s current export capacity is around 14 MTPA from LNG Canada, which went into operation in 2025. If LNG Canada Phase 2 were built, we could fill that supply gap today.

At one time, there were 19 projects proposed in B.C. and we were only able to build LNG Canada Phase 1. We have another opportunity to meet this challenge. NRCAN estimates that the current batch of projects would bring Canada closer to a total of 47.5 MTPA of LNG export capacity by 2029. We can’t squander the opportunity.

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It’s no different with other natural resource industries like mineral exploration and mining. These are long-term assets to our country that allow us to participate in the global economy and provide leverage when the consequences of geopolitics inevitably strike. B.C. alone has the potential to build 27 mines, capable of unlocking $90 billion in economic activity.

Resource development is not just an economic imperative — it is a strategic one. It reduces reliance on foreign-controlled supply chains and provides Canada’s partners with a secure source of materials. It would be a tragedy if, in ten years, we looked back on how we missed the boat and didn’t build the LNG facilities, natural gas wells or nickel mines, that the world will need.

Canada has the resources the world needs right now. But we need to focus on our mission to find and develop them. The policy choices we make today impact our ability to navigate this uncertain world. It’s time to build and focus on the future. Anything less leaves us flapping in the wind.

Jack is the Vice President of Policy and Advocacy at the Association for Mineral Exploration in Vancouver British Columbia.

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