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Adam Zivo: Liberal sanctimony won't reopen Strait of Hormuz

Canada and Europe must join the U.S. militarily in the the fight against Iran

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It is in Canada’s interests to militarily support an end to Iran’s blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Doing so would reaffirm the credibility of the West’s military alliances, and, more importantly, slow down global nuclear proliferation by showing Tehran that economic blackmail doesn’t work.

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To understand why Ottawa must get involved, it is helpful to step back and remember the broader context of this war.

Adam Zivo: Liberal sanctimony won't reopen Strait of Hormuz Back to video

For decades, the Islamic regime has sought nuclear weapons so that it can establish regional hegemony and wipe Israel off the map. Yet, many neighbouring states are willing to enter a nuclear arms race with Tehran, which they fear and loathe, if it means avoiding domination.

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Saudi Arabia and Turkey have strongly suggested that they could nuclearize, and security experts believe that the United Arab Emirates, and possibly Egypt, would join this proliferation wave. These transformations would likely prove irreversible, as no one wants to replicate the mistakes of Ukraine, which foolishly relinquished its nukes in 1994 in exchange for worthless security guarantees.

The Middle East is a tinderbox, so having several nuclear-armed states, most of whom have friction with one another, would be disastrous. Lacking second-strike capabilities, they would be incentivized to use their nuclear weapons preemptively — a factor that would dramatically elevate the risk of catastrophic escalation.

These risks may sound abstract or alarmist to some, but bear in mind that, earlier in the Ukraine war, many analysts, myself included, predicted that insufficiently supporting Kyiv would spur nuclearization in South Korea, Japan and Poland. Those predictions are coming true — so why make an obvious mistake again?

Iran may be far from Canada, but the stakes are clear: do you prefer a Middle East brimming with nuclear states? Does a nuclear winter sound fun to you? No? Me neither.

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After initially relying on cyber-sabotage, the Obama administration pivoted to diplomacy and signed a 2015 deal wherein Tehran, in exchange for sanctions relief, agreed to pause its nuclear program for roughly 15 years. Though celebrated, the deal was deeply flawed and did not prohibit Tehran from stockpiling ballistic missiles or bolstering its regional proxy militias, such as Hamas and Hezbollah.

So, enriched with an influx of cash, the Islamic Republic did just that, apparently hoping that its missile arsenal could, by holding the region hostage, guarantee future nuclearization. This is partially why the Trump administration withdrew from the nuclear deal in 2018.

By last summer, Iran’s nuclear and conventional capabilities had become dangerous enough to warrant pre-emptive intervention. Hence the 12-Day War. Though moderately successful, that campaign ended prematurely and the regime successfully safeguarded most of its highly-enriched uranium. According to U.S. Envoy Steve Witkoff, Iranian negotiators openly bragged this spring that they retained enough of it to produce 11 nuclear weapons.

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So the United States and Israel logically followed up with this current war, exploiting the instability and moral urgency created by Iran’s recent anti-government protests.

Though haphazard, the war has been mostly successful. Regardless if regime change occurs, Tehran’s military capabilities are being substantially and systematically degraded. Its nuclear and ballistic missile programs are in tatters, its proxy network is unravelling and Hezbollah is being suppressed, again, in southern Lebanon.

Unfortunately, Washington and Jerusalem underestimated how vulnerable the Strait of Hormuz would be to a blockade, but this issue can — and indeed must — be solved militarily.

Compromising now would show the Islamic Republic that economic blackmail works, and that its resources should be reallocated towards holding the strait hostage. This would, in turn, make it more painful for the West to “mow the lawn” should the Mullahs later remilitarize.

It is entirely reasonable to expect allies to assist Washington here. Iran’s nuclear ambitions, and protecting commerce in the strait, are global — not just American or Israeli — concerns. Yes, the Trump administration treats its allies poorly, but that does not justify shooting one’s own foot out of spite or schadenfreude.

Yet, according to U.S. President Donald Trump, American allies do not want to participate in the war. They claim that it has nothing to do with them, as Iran did not pose an “imminent threat” to NATO, a defensive alliance that was not directly attacked. In lieu of military support, they have whimsically emphasized the need for diplomatic solutions.

Canada falls into this camp. Prime Minister Mark Carney has said that, although he opposes Tehran’s nuclear program and the illegal blockade of international shipping lanes, his government will not participate in the war. Ottawa has also publicly opposed Israel’s renewed pacification of Hezbollah, advocating instead for a diplomatic approach that has already demonstrably failed.

On Thursday, Canada — along with the United Kingdom, France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands and Japan — released a joint statement condemning Iran’s blockade as “a threat to international peace and security,” and called for a moratorium on all attacks on civilian and energy infrastructure. “We express our readiness to contribute to appropriate efforts to ensure safe passage through the Strait. We welcome the commitment of nations who are engaging in preparatory planning,” they all wrote, which, while more assertive than previous messaging, still fell far short of concrete commitments or action.

It would appear that Carney, like many NATO states, wants to stop the Islamic Regime, a brutal autocracy that mercilessly slaughtered around 30,000 protesters just two months ago, primarily with legalese and stern requests. This may be the popular option — a recent Leger poll suggests two thirds of Canadians want to stay militarily neutral in this conflict — but it is fundamentally unserious position and means that Washington will, once again, disproportionately bear the burdens of safeguarding western security.

In addition to whitewashing the dangers posed by the Islamic regime, NATO’s meekness here reeks of hypocrisy.

When Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, the United States generously supported Kyiv despite the fact that Ukraine was not a NATO member and the alliance’s collective defence clause had not been invoked. American policymakers understood that, although Ukraine technically fell beyond NATO’s scope, it was still relevant to western security and American buy-in was essential to maintaining the alliance’s spirit and credibility.

Having benefited greatly from this support, Washington’s NATO partners owe a debt — one that persists even if Trump regrettably cut Ukrainian aid last year. Their selective legalism and lack of reciprocity is indefensible, especially since Canada and Europe directly benefit from safe international commerce and nuclear containment.

Worse yet, many of these allies have conveniently forgotten that Iran, being a core member of the anti-western bloc, was an essential partner in Russia’s war against Ukraine. Speaking as someone who has witnessed Iranian drones explode in Ukrainian cities, it is astounding to me that NATO allies, having rhapsodized ad nauseum about their support for Kyiv, suddenly believe that hobbling the Islamic regime is not their problem.

This compartmentalization is even more contemptible when one considers that Ukraine is an enthusiastic supporter of the current Iran war. Reflecting his nation’s popular sentiment, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy even described Moscow and Tehran as “brothers in hatred” just a few days ago.

In a Truth Social post this week, Trump excoriated his allies’ unreliability: “I am not surprised by their action, however, because I always considered NATO… to be a one way street — We will protect them, but they will do nothing for us.” Despite the president’s litany of faults, I cannot say that this assessment is unreasonable. While America does the dirty work to keep the world safe, its supposed allies — Canada included — offer only cheap moralism and sanctimony.

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