Dan Arnold is worried about the separatists. The longtime Alberta political observer and pollster, who was former prime minister Justin Trudeau’s director of research and now works as Pollara’s chief strategy officer, understands the numbers better than almost anyone. He can see that support for separatism remains consistently marginal, with poll after poll putting it between 20 and 25 per cent. But he can also envision a situation where it becomes decidedly less marginal — and it’s one we all need to take more seriously. 

Last week, the province’s separatist organizers claimed they’ve obtained the 178,00 signatures required to put the question to a vote, a threshold that was lowered for them by their separatist-friendly premier. It’s not clear if they’ve properly counted or vetted the signatures, and an Alberta judge just ordered a stay on the certification process pending further review, but it’s still a virtual certainty that Danielle Smith will find a way to make their referendum happen anyway. Maybe she actually believes that this is, as she’s put it, a “pressure-release valve” for the grievances and frustrations of her largely rural base. But as with other Conservative leaders who have tried to distract a restless base with a pointless referendum — David Cameron, come on down — she has no idea how it’s actually going to unfold. 

If Arnold’s new data is any indication, we’re at risk of repeating the same mistakes that defined the Brexit referendum. “Support for separatism is meaningfully higher now than it was pre-Trump, higher than it was when 'F Trudeau' bumper stickers represented 8 per cent of Alberta’s GDP,” Arnold writes in Pollara’s latest Alberta Spotlight. “As Albertans talk about separatism more seriously, support is rising. That’s a concern.”

Another concern is the prospect of so-called “ideological sorting,” where pro-Canada Conservative voters in Alberta — and they do exist — either decline to vote or support the separatist cause because of their pre-existing partisan identity. “I don’t think Danielle Smith is going to stand up and voice support for Alberta separatism,” Arnold says. “But we’re not going to hear a full-throated rejection of it from her. And by not rejecting it, Smith is giving license to her voters to vote to separate.”

But Arnold’s biggest fear is the prospect of the ballot question shifting from supporting independence to “sending Ottawa a message,” which just happens to be Alberta’s unofficial provincial pastime. “Among the three-in-four Albertans who would vote against separatism or are unsure, 21 per cent say they’d ‘consider voting for separatism in a referendum as a way to send a message to Ottawa.’ If they all did that, support for separatism would increase from 27 per cent to 42 per cent.”

You can see the recipe for a Brexit-like disaster here. In order to fracture a country, simply combine equal parts complacency among pro-Canada supporters and ballot question confusion among soft separatists, season with generous amounts of foreign interference and bake for six months in a digital information environment that rewards outrage and provocation. That’s a fracture the Trump administration and its various online proxies will be especially eager to exploit. Indeed, after being so thoroughly humiliated in Iran, Trump may be looking for an opportunity to reassert his dominance — and put more pressure on Prime Minister Mark Carney. 

I understand the temptation towards complacency here, especially if you don’t live in Alberta. It’s easy to dismiss the province’s separatist movement as a collection of noisy jackasses who are destined to fall on their collective faces. And if the issue was being contested in a debate hall, where things like facts and context were motivating concerns, they wouldn’t stand a chance. Their arguments, such as they are, can be knocked down with even the slightest application of critical pressure. All they really have to offer is a stew of grievances, half-truths and thinly veiled hatred and bigotries. 

Here’s the problem: that’s a far more appealing political meal to a lot of people than we want to admit. It is, after all, what got Trump elected — twice. It’s what’s propelling far-right parties in the United Kingdom, France, Germany and other Western democracies to the precipice of political power. And a months-long separatist referendum campaign gives all of those players an opportunity to serve that meal up to low-information voters in Alberta, whether through social media and right-wing influencers or other forms of digital interference. 

And guess what? They’re already getting ready to cook. Over on Twitter, Elon Musk is happily siding with far-right separatist David Parker, and it seems almost inevitable that his website will keep churning out pro-separatist slop — almost certainly with his thumb on the algorithm. And forget his quarter-billion dollar spend getting Trump elected — Musk could also shake the Alberta referendum with the change in his couch cushions. Rob Schneider, the hacky comedian of Deuce Bigalow fame turned MAGA personality, has also “endorsed” an independent Alberta in recent days. Even US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has indicated support for the cause. There will be more. 

To their credit, former federal Conservatives like Jason Kenney and Monte Solberg have stepped forward and made public arguments against separatism. Kenney will be involved in a series of public debates with separatist (and convoy) lawyer Keith Wilson and his participation will help build a different permission structure — one that allows Conservatives to vote for Canada. Jeromy Farkas, the former Conservative darling turned decidedly less Conservative Calgary mayor, landed a few clean blows on the premier’s separatist agenda (and the anti-immigrant scapegoating that lies beneath it) during a recent speech to a business audience.  And while expecting moral courage from corporate executives is like waiting for your Golden Retriever to file your taxes, a few business leaders have offered some criticism of the impact of separatism. 

All of this is good. And none of it will be enough if the pro-Canada side keeps sitting on its hands. What’s needed is a proper campaign to leverage the sort of voices that can break through to the lower-information voters who will decide whether the final tally for the separatists starts with a two or a four — or, god help us, a five. My free advice: get the province’s best creative minds in a room with former professional wrestler, proud Calgarian and Canadian hero Bret Hart and have them remind Albertans that Canada remains “the best there was, the best there is, and the best there ever will be.”

Maybe my advice there is worth what it costs, but I know this for certain: those who love and believe in Canada have to leave it all on the field here. This is not the time for half-measures, for staying quiet, or for keeping your powder dry. Use that powder. You can be sure the people on the other side — and especially the ones enabling and amplifying their arguments online — are going to be using theirs.

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