Dan Arnold is worried about the separatists. The longtime Alberta political observer and pollster, who was former prime minister Justin Trudeau’s director of research and now works as Pollara’s chief strategy officer, understands the numbers better than almost anyone. He can see that support for separatism remains consistently marginal, with poll after poll putting it between 20 and 25 per cent. But he can also envision a situation where it becomes decidedly less marginal — and it’s one we all need to take more seriously. 

Last week, the province’s separatist organizers claimed they’ve obtained the 178,00 signatures required to put the question to a vote, a threshold that was lowered for them by their separatist-friendly premier. It’s not clear if they’ve properly counted or vetted the signatures, and an Alberta judge just ordered a stay on the certification process pending further review, but it’s still a virtual certainty that Danielle Smith will find a way to make their referendum happen anyway. Maybe she actually believes that this is, as she’s put it, a “pressure-release valve” for the grievances and frustrations of her largely rural base. But as with other Conservative leaders who have tried to distract a restless base with a pointless referendum — David Cameron, come on down — she has no idea how it’s actually going to unfold. 

If Arnold’s new data is any indication, we’re at risk of repeating the same mistakes that defined the Brexit referendum. “Support for separatism is meaningfully higher now than it was pre-Trump, higher than it was when 'F Trudeau' bumper stickers represented 8 per cent of Alberta’s GDP,” Arnold writes in Pollara’s latest Alberta Spotlight. “As Albertans talk about separatism more seriously, support is rising.........

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