Danielle Smith’s government is poised to run a string of multi-billion dollar deficits that could add upwards of $25 billion to the province’s debt, even as it boasts record-high oil production and expanded access to global markets. It’s also responsible for an ever-expanding ethical scandal over private surgical contracts, rising insurance and utility costs, and Smith’s ongoing attempt to crash — sorry, “refocus” — the healthcare system. And yet, her United Conservative Party is still the favourite, and maybe even a heavy one, to win the next election.  

Why? The answer is staring right back at her in the provincial legislature: NDP leader Naheed Nenshi. For all of the fanfare that greeted his election as Alberta NDP leader in 2024, the man who routinely garnered international coverage as Calgary’s first Muslim mayor has been practically invisible as a provincial politician. And while it’s possible that Smith’s ongoing flirtation with separatism could split her party and hand the next election to the NDP, it’s far more likely that Nenshi is sleepwalking his party into defeat. 

That wasn’t the case in 2023, when most of the polls heading into that year’s provincial election had the NDP (under Rachel Notley’s leadership) ahead of the UCP. They would go on to drop the ball during the actual campaign, especially with their ill-advised promise to raise corporate taxes. But under Nenshi’s leadership the NDP has never been ahead. Of the 14 publicly available polls taken since his June 2024........

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