Donald Trump has not been coy about Cuba. He has openly coveted the ‘honour’ of taking the island. He has also suggested he can do what he likes with it. These seemingly unhinged remarks are not without political intention.

Trump’s fixation with Cuba is not driven by ideological hostility towards Communism, even though that language is politically useful at home. Nor is it really about security concerns. It is a fusion of geopolitical ambition and a transactional worldview.

Cuba appears, in this frame, as a nearby and weakened state whose economic distress can be leveraged into political submission. Its proximity and untapped economic potential make it particularly attractive in Trump’s calculus.

The crippling economic sanctions Cuba is battling must be seen in this context. The sanctions are meant to produce the kind of distress conditions that will make a ‘regime change’ easy. This vision of ‘regime change’ mirrors what unfolded in Venezuela. The aim is to reshape the top leadership in a way that preserves administrative continuity while aligning the system more closely with US interests.

The influence of hardline Cuban exile groups in the US and the longstanding hawkishness of secretary of state Marco Rubio has reinforced this policy direction vis-à-vis Cuba.

The bullying tactic is transparent: by tightening restrictions on energy supplies and effectively cutting off external support, Washington has brought Cuba’s economic crisis to breaking point. Cuba produces only 40 per cent of the oil it needs and the US has choked all possible imports. The resulting shortages have plunged the island nation into........

© National Herald