Donald Trump has restarted America’s war against Iran without answering the question that should have been answered before the first bomb fell: what political result can the US military campaign realistically aim for? The current phase of this war is not merely a return to a dead end. It begins from a worse position, against a more defiant adversary, with fewer military options, lower diplomatic credibility and greater danger to American troops and allies.

The earlier phase was supposed to demonstrate overwhelming power. Instead, Tehran learnt how to survive it and retaliate successfully. Iran has seen Washington’s weapons and the pressures shaping Trump’s decisions. Its leaders know that to thwart the US, all they need is to keep Hormuz unsafe, threaten US bases in the Gulf, raise energy costs and credibly threaten their allies in the region. Unlike the US, Iran has a clear strategy.

For the US and Trump, renewed bombing is a military exercise at great cost but no clear strategic outcome. The war began around claims about Iran’s nuclear programme and the danger it allegedly posed to Israel. It has now become a battle over who controls shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Trump says the US must keep the strait open, but it was open before he chose war. So, the US is losing lives, weapons and diplomatic capital trying to recover a position its own intervention destroyed.

Iran is injured no doubt, but it is still prepared to take risks. Its attacks have widened — from military facilities earlier to vital infrastructure now — in Bahrain, Qatar, Kuwait, Oman and Jordan. Damage to Kuwaiti power and desalination plants shows how quickly the war can derail daily civilian life across the Gulf. A few successful strikes can disrupt shipping, frighten insurers and force a strategic reckoning by America’s Gulf........

© National Herald