A new war is gathering momentum in Ethiopia, with repercussions far beyond its borders. Federal troops are fighting Tigrayan forces as a seven-member alliance of opposition groups challenges Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s government. The conflict has spread beyond the Tigray region, with each side accusing the other of starting the latest offensive. Ethiopia’s neighbours are already being drawn into the dispute.

Whether this remains an Ethiopian war depends partly on what is happening at sea. The Strait of Hormuz and Bab al-Mandab connect the Gulf’s energy supplies with markets around the world. As both become less secure, every port and potential naval foothold along the opposite African coast grows more valuable.

Already shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has plunged, while Houthi advances threaten Bab al-Mandab, the narrow passage into the Red Sea. Ethiopia has added to the tensions by openly threatening to control the Eritrean port of Assab and reaching an agreement with Somaliland to lease a stretch of shoreline.

Ethiopia has been landlocked since Eritrea became independent in 1993. Abiy has made access to the sea a national ambition, repeatedly pointing towards Assab. He argues that a country of Ethiopia’s size needs a more secure route for its trade. Eritrea hears a claim that might one day be enforced by arms. Ethiopia’s internal war is therefore unfolding alongside a dispute about who will hold power on the western shore of the Red Sea.

The conflict has its own causes. The 2022 Pretoria agreement ended two years of devastating war between federal forces and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) but it left arguments over territory, displaced people and political authority unresolved. The federal government and Tigrayan leaders accuse each other of........

© National Herald