There are moments in history when wars change far more than borders. They alter the architecture of international politics. The Iran War may ultimately prove to be one of those moments. Whether a lasting ‘peace agreement’ is reached or not, one geopolitical consequence is already becoming visible. The conflict has accelerated the end of the US-dominated unipolar era.

For more than three decades after the Cold War, Washington enjoyed an unparalleled ability to shape global events, build coalitions, impose sanctions, wage wars and define what constituted the international rules-based order. That era had already begun to recede with the rise of China, the resurgence of Russia, and the growing confidence of regional powers. The Iran war has hastened a transition that was already underway.

Yet celebrating the arrival of a multipolar world would be dangerously premature. The world is becoming multipolar alright, but there’s no alternative world order yet. The balance of power is changing much faster than the creation of any institutions and rules needed to manage that change. That is creating a very unstable international environment.

Every international order needs an anchor. It needs rules that even powerful states hesitate to violate. It needs institutions that have legitimacy even when they fail to satisfy everyone. It needs mechanisms capable of preventing crises from escalating into wars. Above all, it needs major powers to accept restraints because they recognise that stability ultimately serves their own interests.

Even with all its contradictions, the post-WWII order provided some of these foundations. The United Nations, the Bretton Woods institutions, international law, arms control agreements and multilateral diplomacy offered channels through which disputes could be managed.

The system was often selective, unequal and heavily influenced by American interests, but it nevertheless created a degree of predictability. Even when major powers ignored international law, they usually felt compelled to justify their actions within its........

© National Herald