Johnny Garcia, the Democratic nominee in Texas’ 35th congressional district, spent one of the last mornings before the start of early voting meeting with veterans over breakfast tacos and boxed coffee at a VFW hall in San Antonio’s Southside. That’s not surprising for a candidate running in a place known as “Military City, USA.” What is surprising? In a district Donald Trump would have carried by 11 points in 2024, a C-SPAN camera was there too, to capture the scene in what is shaping up to be one of the more unexpectedly competitive House races of 2026.

It wasn’t supposed to be this close. The 35th is one of five districts that were redrawn last summer to replace incumbent Democrats with Republicans, as part of President Donald Trump’s effort to preserve his party’s House majority through a wave of mid-decade redistricting. Kamala Harris carried Rep. Greg Casar’s old 35th—which extended from Austin to San Antonio—by 34 points. The almost entirely new 35th, stretching south and east of the city into rural counties of South Texas, is solidly Republican territory. Casar moved to the neighboring 37th district, which includes his Austin base, but the race for his old seat is tight. Fox News and the Cook Political Report have shifted the race from “likely Republican” to “lean Republican.” Trump recently visited San Antonio, in part to shore up support for Garcia’s Republican opponent, Carlos de la Cruz. And the Democratic group House Majority PAC recently announced $1.2 million in spending on a race its polling showed was within the margin of error.

What changed?

“The district woke up, on both sides of the aisle—I’m meeting more fed-up Republicans than I ever have here,” Garcia told me when we spoke after the event. A soft-spoken, self-described “old school Democrat” from San Antonio, Garcia has a background that’s helped insulate him against standard Republican attacks: He spent nearly two decades as a Bexar County sheriff’s deputy before entering the race, and has worked as a SWAT team hostage negotiator.

“We’re seeing a 16-point shift of Latinos coming back to the party—the folks that they thought were just going to vote for them up and down the ballot again this election cycle.”

Leaning forward in a folding chair, wearing a white Stetson he removed only to thank an older woman for showing up, Garcia rattled off........

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