Olivier Douliery/AFP/Getty

Earlier this month, President Donald Trump made a suggestion that landed on a key part of his far-right coalition like a sucker punch. Referring to negotiations over the Affordable Care Act, he urged House Republicans to be “a little bit flexible” on the Hyde Amendment, which for 50 years has banned the use of federal funds for abortion.

Republicans had allowed ACA subsidies to expire in December, causing insurance premiums to skyrocket for millions of Americans just in time for an election-year backlash. Now, Trump was pushing them to cut a deal with Democrats to resurrect the subsidies, even if it meant compromising on a bedrock conservative principle: no taxpayer support for abortion.

“You gotta work something,” Trump told GOP lawmakers from a stage at the Kennedy Center, where they were gathered for a policy retreat. “You gotta use ingenuity.”

Anti-abortion leaders were apoplectic at Trump’s remarks, warning that backtracking on Hyde would be “a massive betrayal” and threatening to withhold their support in the midterm elections. “If you demoralize a small percentage of pro-lifers,” one leading anti-abortion strategist told Politico, “even if it is only 2 percent of the total electorate in swing districts, that is devastation.”

It wasn’t the first time in the past year abortion opponents have felt taken for granted by the president. “I don’t think Trump believes that he’s beholden to anti-abortion voters in any kind of meaningful way,” says legal historian Mary Ziegler. “He thinks those people will vote for him independently of what he does on abortion.”  

Overall, Trump’s first year back in the White House was an unmitigated disaster for American women and trans people, a relentless series of attacks on the social safety net, the health care infrastructure, and 60 years of progress on civil rights. But on abortion, his approach has been more slow walk than shock and awe. 

Abortion opponents have managed to score a few meaningful victories—including the reinstatement of the global gag rule banning US aid to international groups supporting abortion; a total ban on abortion services for veterans and their dependents; and an end to enforcement of the federal law requiring hospitals to offer abortion care in medical emergencies. Planned Parenthood was kicked off Medicaid—for a year.

But other policies envisioned by Project 2025, the Heritage Foundation’s blueprint for Trump’s second term, haven’t come to pass—yet. Trump officials have not rescinded Food and Drug Administration rules that make abortion pills widely accessible across the US. (A new FDA study into the safety of the mifepristone is widely seen as a delaying tactic to avoid more sweeping action.) Nor has the administration resuscitated the Comstock Act, the Victorian-era “zombie” law that prohibits the mailing (or FedExing, or UPSing, or DHLing) of drugs, supplies, and equipment that could be used for abortion.

Undeterred, abortion opponents have continued to press ahead in federal and state courts, hoping conservative judges will force policy changes that the Trump administration won’t undertake on its own. “I think that, left to his own devices, Trump might just run out the clock on abortion stuff for the entirety of his presidency,” Ziegler says. “But he’s not going to be left to his own devices.”

To help understand how Trump’s first year has confounded expectations among abortion opponents and supporters alike, I reached out to Ziegler, a law professor at the University of California, Davis, and frequent chronicler of the abortion wars, whose next book—her eighth—focuses on the conservative Christian legal movement. She spoke with me by phone last week from her home office outside San Francisco. Our conversation has been edited for length and clarity.

You don’t seem very surprised by how little the Trump administration has done to restrict abortion at the federal level. Why?

There was a lot of ambiguity about what Trump was going to do. He doesn’t seem to have a strong personal opinion either way on abortion, the way he does on, say, Greenland or Venezuela. And the fact that he doesn’t care that much led some people to believe that maybe he could be swayed by people who do care, like........

© Mother Jones