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El Niño’s Estimated Death Toll From Extreme Heat Alone: 451,000 by February

5 0
25.09.2026

This story was originally published by The Guardian and is reproduced here as part of the Climate Desk collaboration.

More than 450,000 people are projected to die from the additional heat brought by the super El Niño by February, according to estimates by climate scientists.

The toll is on top of the early deaths resulting from temperatures already driven up by the climate crisis. It will strike across the globe, from Indonesia to India, and Nigeria to the United States. Many further deaths are expected from the droughts, wildfires, and flooding that El Niños bring.

The heat deaths have been estimated at regional level, and the researchers said the projections therefore identified where measures to protect people could be put in place and save lives. Such actions could include better heat forecasts, cooling centers where people can shelter, increased staffing for medical facilities at the hottest times and protections for outdoor workers.

The El Niño currently heating up the planet burst through the highest temperature ever recorded for the phenomenon on Monday, several months before its expected peak. The heat is so much greater than previous........

© Mother Jones