While the relationship between diet and health is complicated, there is scientific consensus that a Mediterranean diet can reduce the risk of cardiovascular disease and that excessive intake of ultra-processed food increases it. But “reduce” and “increase” are vague terms until numbers are applied to them. Those numbers, though, can be confusing and are often open to misinterpretation. The measure commonly used in nutritional studies to evaluate the effects of some dietary intervention is the “hazard ratio,” or “HR.” It is important to understand what this means — and what it does not mean.

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Let’s start with a specific example: Primary Prevention of Cardiovascular Disease with a Mediterranean Diet, published in the New England Journal of Medicine.

The study involved separating 7,447 subjects known to have risk factors for cardiovascular disease into three groups. One group followed a Mediterranean diet with added extra-virgin olive oil, another followed the Mediterranean diet with extra nuts, and the third, the “control group” continued to eat in their usual way with some advice to watch their fat intake. A Mediterranean diet involves eating vegetables, fruit, legumes, nuts, fish and olive oil, while reducing sweets and red and........

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