When Azerbaijani gas crosses Türkiye to reach Syrian power plants, Iraqi oil flows through Turkish territory towards the Mediterranean, and Iraq’s electricity grid connects to Turkish transmission lines, Ankara is no longer merely hosting a collection of transit routes. Türkiye is increasingly positioning itself at the centre of an energy network linking producers and consumers across the Caucasus, the Middle East and Europe.

The distinction matters. A transit state benefits from energy passing through its territory; a trading hub facilitates exchange, resale and market services. Network power, however, emerges when several forms of infrastructure — gas, oil and electricity — simultaneously connect other countries to a pivotal state. Türkiye’s energy strategy should therefore be understood as a three-stage transition: from transit corridor to trading hub, and from trading hub to network power.

Gas: From geography to market

The Trans-Anatolian Natural Gas Pipeline, or TANAP, remains the clearest expression of Türkiye’s geographical advantage. According to official TANAP information, the pipeline was designed with an initial annual capacity of 16 billion cubic metres (bcm), of which 10 bcm was allocated for Europe, with scope for further expansion through additional investment.

But moving gas is not the same as becoming a gas hub. A genuine hub requires diversified suppliers, storage capacity, access to LNG, opportunities for resale and, ultimately, credible mechanisms for trading and price discovery.

The agreement between BOTAŞ and Shell illustrates Ankara’s movement in this direction. Türkiye’s Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources announced that, beginning in 2027, Shell will supply BOTAŞ with around 4 bcm of LNG annually through 40 cargoes over a ten-year period. The agreement also allows deliveries from loading ports and unloading at European terminals, giving BOTAŞ greater flexibility beyond Türkiye’s domestic market.

Iran represents another dimension of this diversification. The Iran–Türkiye pipeline was developed around a long-term agreement for roughly 10 bcm of gas annually.........

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