The next crisis or confrontation in the Gulf may not begin with a territorial invasion or an attack on a military base. It could start with the disruption of an oil refinery, export terminal, liquefied natural gas facility, power grid or desalination plant. In a region where oil, gas, electricity, water and maritime trade are tightly interconnected, an attack on energy infrastructure is no longer a limited act. It could simultaneously affect global markets, human security and the stability of several states.

The region therefore needs an “energy non-aggression pact”: a limited but practical agreement protecting critical energy infrastructure and the essential services that depend on it. Its purpose would be to transform mutual infrastructure vulnerability into mutual restraint.

Such an initiative would only be meaningful if it moved beyond narrow blocs and included the Gulf Cooperation Council states, Iran and Iraq, according to their different roles in the region’s energy geography and maritime security. No durable arrangement can exclude a major part of the Gulf’s security equation.

Such an initiative would only be meaningful if it moved beyond narrow blocs and included the Gulf Cooperation Council states, Iran and Iraq, according to their different roles in the region’s energy geography and maritime security. No durable arrangement can exclude a major part of the Gulf’s security equation.

When energy infrastructure becomes a global target

The 2019 attacks on Saudi Arabia’s Abqaiq and Khurais facilities demonstrated how damage to a small number of critical sites could temporarily disrupt a substantial share of the Kingdom’s oil production and immediately unsettle global markets. The deeper lesson was not merely the temporary loss of output, but the concentration and vulnerability of infrastructure on which part of the global economy depends.

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The security of the Gulf is also inseparable from surrounding maritime routes, from the Strait of Hormuz and the Gulf of Oman to Bab Al-Mandab and the Red Sea. Disruption at one point can raise shipping, insurance and energy-trading costs across a much wider area. The spread of drones and the growing threat of destructive cyber operations have extended this vulnerability beyond physical facilities to control centres, communications systems and digital energy networks.

Qatar’s position as one of the world’s largest and most........

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