Azerbaijani oil passes through Turkiye to Israel, its gas reaches European markets, and Emirati and Saudi capital finances its power plants. This network places Azerbaijan at the intersection of interests that do not always align. Baku has made itself relevant to several competing actors. Its harder task is to turn those relationships into lasting influence while preserving strategic autonomy.

Continued oil deliveries to Israel, despite Ankara’s trade restrictions, illustrate the challenge. Infrastructure, contracts and commercial interests can sustain connections across political divisions. Azerbaijan gains revenue and strategic importance, while becoming exposed to disputes among its partners.

Ankara and Tel Aviv: Two relationships, one route

Turkiye is both a political partner and Azerbaijan’s gateway to overseas markets. The Baku–Tbilisi–Ceyhan pipeline carries Caspian oil to the Mediterranean, while the Trans-Anatolian pipeline forms part of the Southern Gas Corridor, connecting Azerbaijani gas to Europe. These assets give the Baku–Ankara relationship a durability extending beyond immediate political positions.

The route’s importance to Israel is measurable. Azerbaijani crude accounted for 46.4 per cent of Israeli oil imports in 2025. Reuters reported in January 2026, citing Kpler data, that imports through Ceyhan reached approximately 94,000 barrels a day, up 31 per cent from the previous year. It also described vessels declaring alternative destinations and switching off tracking systems.

These shipments expose a gap between Ankara’s declared restrictions and the operation of a multinational oil supply chain. Cargo ownership, pipeline operations and final delivery involve different commercial and regulatory arrangements. In November 2024, Turkiye’s energy ministry stated that BTC operates........

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