Within eight days in October, US President Donald Trump made two statements about two wartime leaders that, placed side by side, read like a confession. On 10 October, speaking to reporters as he left the White House, he said of Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky: “I think it’s time for Ukraine to get a new president.” He accused Zelensky of passing up the chance to settle the war with Russia “many times, many many times” and of driving up diesel prices by striking Russian oil refineries: “He wants to make problems for our farmers, our ranchers, with diesel fuel.”

On 18 October, Trump posted a letter on his Truth Social platform describing Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu as “a Great Warrior Prime Minister, and an even greater Partner for Peace.” In the letter, he gave Netanyahu his “Complete and Total Endorsement” nine days before Israel’s general election on 27 October.

Trump’s endorsement of Netanyahu was expected, given Washington’s long record of backing Israel. His remarks on Zelensky, by contrast, shocked many. They revealed the real logic of the Trump administration: politics driven by calculations of interest rather than by allegiances or alliances. Together, the two statements hold an important lesson for anyone who believes American support is a promise rather than a calculation. They also expose Zelensky’s own strategic failure: he relied on a foreign power with its own interests instead of honestly weighing his own capabilities in the conflict with Russia.

READ: Why is the Middle East waiting out the Trump presidency?

A card that no longer plays

Zelensky’s fall from grace was triggered by a dispute over diesel. On 9 October, after a phone call with Russian President Vladimir Putin, Trump announced a deal under which Russia would immediately supply more than 300,000 tonnes of diesel, followed by 500,000 tonnes in November and........

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