War, elections and Bibi’s alibi
Some coincidences are coincidences; others arrive so punctually that one begins to wonder whether the universe has developed a sense of political satire. Benjamin Netanyahu is less than four weeks away from an election on October 27. His corruption trial continues to hang over him, involving three cases alleging bribery, fraud and breach of trust, all of which he denies. Even more awkwardly, former Attorney General Avichai Mandelblit is scheduled to testify between October 11 and 22, barely five days before Israelis go to the polls. One might therefore expect the prime minister to discuss governance, accountability, and the small inconvenience of criminal proceedings. Instead, he is talking about enemies. This is hardly new. Netanyahu's political career has been built to an extraordinary degree around the proposition that Israel lives in permanent peril and that he is the man uniquely equipped to protect it from that peril. It is a remarkably efficient political formula. The country is surrounded by enemies, the enemies are always preparing something terrible, the threat is existential, and therefore the man behind the lectern must remain behind the lectern. Unfortunately for Netanyahu, October 7 rather severely complicated that proposition.
The subsequent investigations have established that Israel did not simply wake up one morning to an attack nobody could have anticipated. Israel possessed Hamas' so-called Jericho Wall plan years before the massacre. The IDF's own investigation found failures in intelligence assessment, threat perception, operational readiness and decision-making. Hamas was repeatedly underestimated, and warning signs were not assembled into the picture they should have produced. That does not prove Netanyahu permitted October 7, but it does establish something far more inconvenient. The question is no longer whether Israel had information. It certainly did. The question is what happened to it. Now comes another extraordinary chapter.
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