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Oregon Senators Urge CFTC to Block Wildfire Bets on Prediction Markets Over Arson Risks

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12.08.2026

WASHINGTON — A bipartisan group of U.S. senators led by Oregon's Jeff Merkley has formally urged the Commodity Futures Trading Commission to restrict or prohibit prediction market platforms from offering contracts that allow betting on wildfires, citing risks to public safety and the potential for arson.

In a letter to CFTC Chair Michael Selig, the lawmakers warned that such markets could create perverse incentives during an already severe fire season. "Offering bets on destructive wildfires threatens to minimize communities' suffering all so the rich and powerful can profit," the senators wrote. "There's also the heightened risk—according to state and local fire officials—that individuals could be tempted to commit arson in order to make sure their bets are successful. By offering contracts on fires, prediction market sites run the risk of encouraging people to influence fires that have already started, creating additional concerns around public safety and insider trading."

The letter was signed by Merkley and fellow Oregon Sen. Ron Wyden, along with Sens. Alex Padilla and Adam Schiff of California, Jeanne Shaheen of New Hampshire, Jacky Rosen and Catherine Cortez Masto of Nevada, Martin Heinrich of New Mexico, and Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota. It requests answers from the commission by Aug. 14 on several points, including whether the agency is considering a ban on wildfire-related event contracts as part of ongoing rulemaking, how it plans to address both domestic and offshore platforms, whether........

© International Business Times