Is the victory of the AfD (Alternative for Germany) in the German state of Saxony-Anhalt a straw in the wind?

Those hoping and those fearing that it and other right-wing insurgent parties may be capable of supplanting their mainstream rivals are in agreement on one thing: the result is extremely important.

The radical AfD won 43.8 per cent of the vote, to the conservative CDU’s 17.2 per cent. The AfD themselves declared it a “dream result”, which they intend to use as a springboard to achieve 40 per cent of the vote countrywide in the next national election in 2029.

Germany’s embattled centre-right Chancellor, Friedrich Merz, who leads the CDU, said he was “deeply shocked” and that the election ruled out any return to “business as usual”.

The prospect of the radical right gaining power comes, of course, with strong historical resonance in Germany. But the AfD are not the only nationalist party hoping to take power in Europe.

In France, the National Rally is targeting the 2027 presidential election. The party’s president, Jordan Bardella, made an appearance at Reform UK’s conference in Birmingham last week, illustrating the degree to which such parties aid one another.

Of course, winning a regional election is not a guarantee that one will win at national level. Reform’s own triumphs in recent local elections have not handed the party the inexorable rise in the opinion polls that it originally seemed to expect.

Our own experience in Britain........

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