The term “special relationship” – used to describe relations between the US and UK – was first used by Winston Churchill in 1946 to highlight just how intertwined the countries had become after the Second World War. Ever since, the US and UK have been in varying degrees of lockstep, with presidents and prime ministers honouring that alliance in times of peace and conflict. Yet Donald Trump has been increasingly critical of Keir Starmer for not supporting his war on Iran. So what is the future of the special relationship? Ian Dunt, Zoë Grünewald and Jon Sopel offer their perspectives.

The term “special relationship” – used to describe relations between the US and UK – was first used by Winston Churchill in 1946 to highlight just how intertwined the countries had become after the Second World War. Ever since, the US and UK have been in varying degrees of lockstep, with presidents and prime ministers honouring that alliance in times of peace and conflict.

Yet Donald Trump has been increasingly critical of Keir Starmer for not supporting his war on Iran. So what is the future of the special relationship? Ian Dunt, Zoë Grünewald and Jon Sopel offer their perspectives.

There are two kinds of people in British foreign policy: those who recognise that the world has changed forever and those who do not.

It is the latter who are in control and that is why the UK is currently humiliating itself.

Since the end of the Second World War, Britain’s foreign policy has been dictated by its reliance on its relationship with the US. As Winston Churchill told his Cabinet when he retired in 1955: “Never be separated from the Americans.”

That piece of advice became the cornerstone of British foreign policy. It’s so deeply embedded in the British political mind that most leaders are unable to extricate it, no matter the circumstances.

Our continental defensive plans are grounded in an assumption of American leadership under Nato. Our F-35 planes are 15 per cent built in the UK, but they are purchased from the US company Lockheed Martin. Our Trident nuclear deterrent system is operationally independent, but it must be serviced in the US in order for it to function. Our intelligence capabilities are based on the Five Eyes system under de-facto US leadership.

The dominant British foreign policy position is that even if we wanted to change position it’s too late now. We are embedded in an American defence ecosystem.

What do you do, then, when America goes insane? You wait for it to blow over. Not because that is the most logical thing to do, but because it is the only thing you can do.

But this view is false. It has been proved false so consistently, for so long, that anyone still holding it has become an obstacle to our national dignity.

Donald Trump was elected in 2016. Perhaps in 2016 you could still believe things might return to normal. It is now nearly a decade later. This position is no longer tenable.

The breaking point came in November 2024 when Trump was elected a second time. At this point the reality was clear: over half of US voters had given up on the values of a free society. That turned a problem concerning one individual into a problem concerning a country. Even when Trump is gone, the problem will remain. It is long term. The US is, in foreign policy terms, a rogue state.

This is not a subtle argument which requires a deep reading of events. It should be obvious to anyone who cares to look. The US threatens to invade Greenland. It actively and proudly supports far-right political figures in Europe dedicated to overthrowing mainstream parties. It celebrates and praises Vladimir Putin. It berates and despises its traditional allies.

It starts wars which lack any kind of legal, moral or strategic validity. It destabilises whichever global arena it turns its attention to. It aims to undermine or destroy international institutions, including the UN, the WTO, Nato and the EU. If that’s not a rogue state, then what is?

Even discussing whether the special relationship is dead is embarrassing. It’s like realising we’re about to be dumped and suddenly shouting “I dumped you first” and expecting to retain some dignity. The special relationship is already dead, we just have to realise it.

In the last month alone, Trump has said that Britain is “our once great ally”, that the UK “has been very, very uncooperative”, and that Starmer “is not Winston Churchill”. Trump’s actions invariably and persistently worsen the political conditions for Starmer. His tariff attack knocked the economy. The war in Iran threatens to drive up inflation just as it finally seemed under control. His weekly tantrums soak up attention and resources, when Starmer would be much better off dealing with his domestic problems. This is a special relationship in the same way that someone has a unique connection to their abuser.

There is a simple choice in front of us. We can be dependent on a power which has gone insane or be independent of it. That in reality, is no choice at all, for anyone who truly gives a damn about this country. Our current inaction guarantees nothing but national humiliation, stretching into the middle distance.

The solution is two-fold. First, we need to begin extracting ourselves from our reliance on the US. This will be painful, it will be expensive, it will take a long time and it will require the British foreign policy establishment to cure itself of decades of intuition. But it is required. We can be like France, which has prioritised its autonomy and now enjoys an ability to defend and project its values which far exceeds our own.

The road to an independent defence capacity will be long, which is why it must be undertaken now. It will require tax increases and borrowing, which is why it will need political leadership.

The second solution is close cooperation with other like-minded countries. Canadian prime minister Mark Carney laid out how this might function in his speech to the World Economic Forum in February. Middle powers working together to represent their interests and defend their values. They would not walk away from existing global institutions, but they would not sit there pretending the global rules based order still existed, when it manifestly does not.

In Britain, the most compelling club of middle powers is right on our doorstep. It is Europe. This is the continent we will defend against Russian aggression. It is the continent which will defend us. It is the location of the most ambitious rearmament programme on the face of the earth.

Europe is the future of British defence and the context in which we can help build a middle power alliance. It is the foundation stone upon which we can defend open societies and fight tyranny.

The special relationship does not exist. Our fantasy about it deprives us of our dignity. But we can once again enjoy autonomy, pride, national security and moral stature if we make hard decisions now about our future.

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