A US naval blockade of Iran is intended to strangle Tehran’s oil exports. But it risks hitting not just the supplier, but the buyer – China – and pulling it into direct confrontation.

China is the largest buyer of shipped Iranian oil, purchasing around 90 per cent of its exports. Blockading Iran risks, in effect, blockading China – threatening up to 13 per cent of its seaborne oil imports.

So, if the US Navy stops a tanker, that tanker is very likely tied to China. This is already visible. Tankers with links to China have begun altering course in the Gulf, even as the rules of enforcement continue to evolve – yesterday the Rich Starry turned back, despite being loaded up in the United Arab Emirates. Operating in this legal grey zone over which ships are subject to the blockade increases the risk rather than reducing it.

Those judged to be on the wrong side of that line face rapidly escalating threats, with decisions made in real time under uncertain rules. According to US Central Command, ships entering or exiting Iranian ports without authorisation are “subject to interception, diversion and capture”.

It’s not hard to imagine the scenario. A Chinese-linked vessel........

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